“Off the Cliff” – Is Cliff Lee Overrated?

This may sound sacrilegious, but is Cliff Lee really worth the years and money that are being offered in negotiations?  There is no dispute that he is the top free agent available and is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball – right now.  But the notion that he deserves a 6 or 7-year contract at a salary equal to or greater than some of the game’s best pitchers is questionable.  I haven’t seen anyone else make this argument regarding Cliff Lee.  All I read in the papers, blogs, websites, Twitter and Facebook is how multiple teams are justifiably making insane contract offers to a 32-year old pitcher with a history of back injuries and one amazing season on his resume.  Yes, adding Cliff Lee to any team would make them instantly better.  The Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Nationals and every other team in Major League Baseball would love to have Cliff Lee in their starting rotation.  But at what cost?  It is clear that the economic prosperity of Major League Baseball and some of its teams, as well as the market value of free agents, is dictating the terms of contracts being offered.  That is fine, but my criticism is the gross over-evaluation of the most elite free agent pitcher on the market this year. 

I realize that a baseball player’s value and success has many intangible aspects to consider.  That is why Derek Jeter just signed a 3 year/$51M contract as a 36-year old shortstop entering the final stages of his career.  Jeter has intrinsic value as an iconic New York Yankee, and he has 15 years of being one of the league’s most clutch performers in the biggest of spotlights.  But what can the Yankees realistically expect from an aging Jeter who has lost a step or two and isn’t getting any younger?  His statistics and actual on-field performance does not equate to the contract he received.  The years and numbers being offered to Cliff Lee elicit the same questions. 

Over his 8-year career, Lee is 102-61 with a 3.85 ERA.  He has had a very interesting career with many ups and downs.  After being acquired by the Indians in the infamous Bartolo Colon trade with Omar Minaya and the Montreal Expos (the trade that sent Colon to Montreal for Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips), he had a couple cups of coffee with Cleveland in 2002 and 2003.  He found some success between 2004-2006 by going 46-24 including an 18-win season in 2005.  But if you look deeper at his numbers, his ERA’s ranged between 3.79 and 5.43 during that time.  He also did not possess the same walk/strikeout ratio that we have grown accustomed to more recently.  During a dismal 2007 season, he was demoted to the minors to work on his mechanics and find himself.  He certainly did because his 2008 Cy Young season was one of the best statistical performances in recent history.  He went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, and in 223 innings he only walked 34 batters.  This dominant control would become Lee’s signature attribute.  He only walked 43 batters in 231 innings in 2009, and more amazingly, he only walked 18 batters in 212 innings in 2010.  That’s right, only 18 walks in the entire 2010 season split between Seattle and Texas.  However, his overall record the past two years was a collective 26-22 with a 3.20 ERA. 

There were some mitigating factors for his mediocre win/loss record since 2009.  He was traded in the middle of each season, including switching to the unfamiliar National League in 2009.  After he was traded to Seattle before the 2010 season, he was recovering from an injury and missed the beginning of the season.  The Mariners were also one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, so run support was not there for him.  Surprisngly, after he was traded to the Texas Rangers, who possessed a far superior offense and bullpen, Lee’s performance took a nose-dive down the stretch.  He compiled a 4-6 record with a 3.98 ERA in his 15 starts with the Rangers.  There were rumblings about his previous back injuries flaring up, and it seemed to make sense given his inconsistent pitching.  However, once the calendar turned to October, Lee became a different pitcher. 

Cliff Lee has pitched in the past two post-seasons with the Phillies and the Rangers.  In 2009, he went 4-0 including two wins against the Yankees in the World Series.  He didn’t just win these games – he dominated them.  He carried this success over to the 2010 playoffs where he went 3-0 in the first two rounds of the playoffs, including another dominant performance against the Yankees in the ALCS.  Through his first seven post-season games, he was 7-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA.  However, the 2010 World Series would not see Lee achieve the same success as he lost twice to the eventual champion San Francisco Giants.  He didn’t just lose, he got knocked around and looked like anything but a dominant ace pitcher.  And that is the lasting memory we have of the 2010 season.

So here we are during the off-season and Lee is getting offers of 6-7 years at $150M.  Yes, he is a good pitcher with some terrific success in the post-season prior to the World Series.  But if you break down his numbers and consider where he is in his career, he has likely maxed out by now.  At 32, he is almost beyond his prime and is coming off two very mediocre seasons.   His 2008 season is one for the record books and is unlikely to be repeated, especially by someone without the history of consistency.  Other pitchers who have received similar contracts, such as Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia, all had resumes consisting of multiple years of domination and consistency.  They are all generally around the same age and they all have likely reached their pinnacle of success in terms of statistical performance.  Here comes Cliff Lee seemingly out of nowhere since 2008 now commanding the same type of contract that these other stud pitchers have.  It is likely that if Lee signs with the Yankees, Rangers or Angels he will have success because these are all very good teams.  At 32, he likely does have a few more years left where those lofty expectations can be met.  But as we all know in the post-steroid era, baseball players typically do not get better once they reach their mid-30’s.  Especially a starting pitcher with a history of back injuries.  No one can fault Lee for seeking a contract of 7 years, especially when there are multiple teams willing to give it to him.  But the sensible thing for all teams involved would have been offering a 3 or 4 year contract to maximize their rate of return.  Even if Lee is successful and helps put a team over the top, what will this contract look like when he is 37, 38 or 39 years old and a shell of his former self?  Maybe these teams have so much financial security that they don’t even care.  So why should we care? 

We should care because as profitable as baseball is right now, there is no guarantee that things will remain the way they are.  Teams are generating more revenue and income than ever, thanks in part to television networks and overall interest and attendance at games.  But money does not grow on trees, so a team that makes a financial commitment like this had better be prepared to suffer through a devaluation at the end of the contract.  In 2016, whoever signs Lee and is paying him $23M will likely not be receiving their money’s worth for his performance.  That is just human nature.  But this contract could become an albatross and prevent the team from making other moves that it needs to.  Basically, signing Cliff Lee to such a contract is for a short-term goal with long-term repercussions.  But again I ask, is he really worth it?  His playoff performances the last two years seem to have masked the reality that Cliff Lee has had a very pedestrian career outside of his ridiculous 2008 season.  He is not likely going to get better, and he must accept the pressure and responsibility of being in the spotlight as one of the highest paid athletes in all of professional sports.  He is a simple man from Arkansas.  He is not flashy, he does not get in trouble, and he seems to enjoy his lifestyle living in relative obscurity.  This will all change once he signs on a dotted line for the projected years and dollars that have been offered. 

In summation, I am not saying that Cliff Lee isn’t a good pitcher or that teams wouldn’t be better with him on their pitching staff.  What I am saying is that he is being treated like an all-time great and someone who can be counted on for numbers that correlate to the dollars he is about to earn.  His overall resume does not demonstrate that.  He will help whomever he chooses to sign with, but what will that sentiment be a few years down the road?

Comments?  Thoughts?  Questions?

(E) michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com

(T) @FantasyJudgment