Nationals Will Not Get Their Money’s “Werth”

Let me premise this article by first stating that people are entitled to seek as much money as they possibly can from an employer to do their job.  Additionally, people are entitled to make decisions that most benefit themselves and their families.  Finally, owners of a business are entitled to spend their own money however they desire in an effort to improve their business and make more money.  That all being said, the 7-year/$126 million contract that Jayson Werth signed with the Washington Nationals is an absolute joke and an embarassment to Major League Baseball.

Not only did the Nationals overpay and outbid everyone else for the services of an aging, injury-prone corner outfielder who clearly benefited from hitting in a loaded lineup and bandbox ballpark, but they also set the market for other eligible free agents with unrealistic demands and expectations.  Let me first say that I have always liked Jayson Werth as a ballplayer.  I thought he was going to be a superstar when he came up through the Dodgers farm system.  But various injuries derailed his progress and he never had the chance to showcase his talents for a full season in Los Angeles.  Eventually the Dodgers got tired of waiting for him to develop and stay healthy, so the Phillies intelligently picked him up and gave him an opportunity just as their renaissance began in 2007.  Werth plays the game of baseball with reckless abandon at times, and has proven to be a clutch performer in the playoffs.  He is gritty, gutty, and likes to get his jersey dirty.  He fit perfectly in the Phillies’ lineup batting behind the powerful and prolific left-handed bats of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  Werth was the reason why opposing teams had to make pitching changes as he provided the right-handed pop in the middle of their batting order.  And he did produce.  From 2008-2010 when Werth was playing everyday and staying healthy, he averaged 29 HR’s, 84 RBI’s, and a .279 batting average.  These were good numbers for a player that was arguably the 3rd best player in the Phillies’ lineup. 

Werth was clearly not the focus of the Phillies’ offensive firepower.  But he developed a nice niche in Philadelphia as their rabid fan base quickly grew to embrace his style of play.  Plus, he was playing on a team that made back-back World Series appearances, including one championship, and four consecutive NL East division titles.  He was on a team with a pitching staff comprised of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels – a staff that will keep the Phillies in contention every year as long as they stay healthy.  He was part of a team that could almost be considered a dynasty given their recent and projected success.  Generally speaking, Jayson Werth was a significant piece of a larger puzzle.

Now he has signed a contract with the Washington Nationals.  The Nationals, whose legacy stems from the Montreal Expos, do not have a rich history of success.  They have been unable to lure free agents to their team for a variety of reasons.  Knowing that, the Nationals offered Werth more years and more dollars than any other team would ever have offered.  In doing so, they got their man.  But what did they get?  Werth will be 32 during the 2011 season, and his contract will expire when he is 39 years old.  This is a player with a significant history of injuries.  Granted he has been healthy for the last 2 and a half seasons, but as we all know in this post-steroid era, players generally do not get better with age as they approach their mid-30’s.  The Nationals are also expecting him to be the focus of their offensive attack in addition to Ryan Zimmerman.  There is no other legitimate threat on the Nationals’ roster as we speak, so Werth is likely to be exposed on an island in comparison to his role on the Phillies.  Furthermore, Nationals Ballpark is not considered a hitter’s haven like Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.  Werth does have undeniable power, but those lazy fly balls that reached the seats in Philly will turn into F8’s in DC.  Werth has been brought in to replace Adam Dunn, who recently signed a free agent contract with the Chicago White Sox.  He will never be able to replicate Dunn’s power, although he will be expected to – especially since he signed for more than twice of what Dunn got from Chicago.

The last point I want to make in all of this is something that is probably unfair to be commenting on, but as a fan, I feel obligated to do so.  Sure, I understand that playing baseball is a job.  Jayson Werth goes to work everyday, just like I do.  Except, he gets to go play baseball at a ballpark whereas I have to drive, take two trains, walk across Manhattan and go into an office building.  An ancillary part of Jayson Werth’s job, as well as every other professional athlete, is an innate desire to win.  Not just personal success, but team success.  Players will make their money, but receiving a championship ring or trophy is a true sense of professional accomplishment for a player.  Werth attained this success in 2008 with the Phillies.  He almost tasted it again in 2009 when the Phillies lost to the Yankees.  Given the team that the Phillies still have, it was very likely he would have a chance to taste it again and again.  However, deciding to sign with the Nationals almost assures him that he will not ever taste this type of victory again.  Look, I am not saying the Washington Nationals can never be successful.  Of course they can – with some creative moves, money spent wisely, and development of young players, the Nationals certainly can become a contender in the NL East.  But the chance of this happening during the remainder of Werth’s productive years is slim.  In other words, there are reasons why no other big name free agents have ever signed with the Nationals until now.  Werth probably could have gotten his $17-18M per year from the Phillies, but not for as many years.  The Nationals had to commit to those years to lure him, and lure him they did.  How productive do you think Werth will be at 38 years old making $18M?  If he is in his prime right now and average 29 HR’s and 84 RBI in a great lineup, what kind of numbers will be average in the next 7 years as he ages and hits in a weak lineup and cavernous ballpark?  My guess is he will be earning approximately $1,000,000 per homerun he hits.

At the end of the day, good for Jayson Werth for earning this contract.  Who would ever turn down an offer like this if one was given to you?  No one.  Werth has his championship ring already.  Now he can set himself up for life and provide for his family in ways he never could have imagined a few years ago.  And who knows, maybe Werth and the Nationals will have the last laugh.  Come 2012, Stephen Strasburg will be back, Bryce Harper will likely be in the big leagues, and they may have acquired a few more key pieces.  Maybe by then the Phillies will have aged too much and the Nationals could be knocking on their doorsteps.  But even if all of that happens, this ground-breaking contract will still not be “Werth” what they are paying.

Let me know what you think.  Email me at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com, find me on Twitter @FantasyJudgment, or leave a comment below.