Passing Judgment – April Fools’ Day is over, right?

The great thing about spring training and Opening Day is that every major league baseball team starts off on equal footing and thinks they have a chance at making the playoffs.  Everyone has a clean slate, so the past is forgotten and the future is is pursued.  Coming into the 2011 season, most “experts” predicted that the Boston Red Sox would win the American League East and likely represent the AL in the World Series.  These same “experts” also likely prognosticated that the Baltimore Orioles would finish in the basement of the American League East and be a stepping stone for the contenders.  And come October, they may be right.  But as we sit here on April 4, 2011, just a few days into the season, what was up is down, and what was in is out.

The Red Sox just got swept out of Texas by the defending American League champions and did not look good in the process.  Boston’s starting pitching did not live up to the hype over the first three games.  Additionally, Carl Crawford, one of the prized free agent acquisitions, didn’t show much to justify his enormous contract either.  It is only three games, but everything the Red Sox do is viewed under a very narrow microscope.  On the flip side, the Orioles are now 4-0 after sweeping the defending AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays and the defeating Detroit in their home opener in Baltimore.  This is the first time since 1977 that the Orioles started 4-0.  They didn’t make the playoffs that year, but the point is driven home that this is not a common occurrence for this once proud franchise.  The thing is that, on paper, Baltimore has one of the more explosive lineups in baseball.  With the additions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, the Orioles have provided solid depth to complement Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters.  The problem is that the O’s pitching is young, inexperienced, and very shallow. 

So after all the moves were made in the off-season and then analyzed to death, look where we are after just four days.  The Orioles are already three and a half games ahead of Boston in the standings.  I don’t think anyone would have predicted that and not been committed to an insane asylum.  But that is what is so great about baseball.  In the end, the law of averages will likely prevail and the Red Sox will hit their stride, likely leaving the Orioles well behind in their rear-view mirror.  But for now, it is fun to see the standings look upside down.  Props to Buck Showalter who once again proves that he knows how to change the culture of a young, losing team.  Hopefully he’ll have the chance to see it through if Baltimore can somehow maintain this pace.

Cliff’s Notes – My Thoughts on the Cliff Lee Signing

I recently wrote an article arguing that Cliff Lee is overrated when comparing his overall body of work to the contracts he was being offered in terms of length and cost.  I did not include the Philadelphia Phillies in that article because at the time, there was no indication that they were even a consideration for Lee since no reports surfaced of any contract negotiations.  Now that the Phillies have come in and swept Lee away from the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, I must swallow some pride and admit a couple things.  First off, I still believe that Cliff Lee is overrated and that the Phillies will being grossly overpaying after three years.  Second, I must give credit to the Phillies for being aggressive and pursuing Lee to include him in arguably one of the greatest starting pitching rotations of all-time.  Lee will be the #2 man behind 2010 Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, and in front of Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels.  In many respects, when Lee is at the top of his game he is the left-handed version of Halladay.  Opponents surely are not looking forward to facing the Phillies.  The Phillies, who just saw their best right-handed hitter and starting RF Jayson Werth bolt to Washington, did not stand still.  They probably realized that there was not a better option to plug in to right field, so they have essentially changed their overall philosophy.  They are not going to bludgeon teams with their offense anymore, which still contains Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  Instead, they have gone the other direction to dominate the league with pitching.  So I applaud Ruben Amaro and the rest of the Phillies’ organization for being so flexible and creative.  And yes, it pains me as a Mets’ fan to say that.

Most importantly, I must give credit to Cliff Lee.  In current times, professional athletes seek the most amount of money they possibly can – which they are entitled to do so.  Most times, the pursuit of the most money leads players to teams and organizations where there is little chance of succeeding as a team (See Jayson Werth article at https://fantasyjudgment.wordpress.com/2010/12/06/nationals-will-not-get-their-moneys-werth/).  Here, Cliff Lee left several million dollars on the table from both the Yankees and Rangers’ contract offers.  Granted, he had very good chances of winning had he signed with New York or Texas, but he realized the situation he would be in if he signed with the Phillies and joined their starting rotation.  He also clearly enjoyed his time in Philadelphia after being traded there in 2009 and helping lead the Phillies to the World Series.  Kudos to Lee for deciding to play on a team that he enjoyed being a part of and that gives him an excellent chance of winning a championship.  No one can ever say he went for the money.  And maybe he is overpriced and not deserving of more years and dollars than Roy Halladay.  But he will certainly be worth more to the Phillies than Jayson Werth was to them or will be to the Nationals.

“Off the Cliff” – Is Cliff Lee Overrated?

This may sound sacrilegious, but is Cliff Lee really worth the years and money that are being offered in negotiations?  There is no dispute that he is the top free agent available and is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball – right now.  But the notion that he deserves a 6 or 7-year contract at a salary equal to or greater than some of the game’s best pitchers is questionable.  I haven’t seen anyone else make this argument regarding Cliff Lee.  All I read in the papers, blogs, websites, Twitter and Facebook is how multiple teams are justifiably making insane contract offers to a 32-year old pitcher with a history of back injuries and one amazing season on his resume.  Yes, adding Cliff Lee to any team would make them instantly better.  The Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Nationals and every other team in Major League Baseball would love to have Cliff Lee in their starting rotation.  But at what cost?  It is clear that the economic prosperity of Major League Baseball and some of its teams, as well as the market value of free agents, is dictating the terms of contracts being offered.  That is fine, but my criticism is the gross over-evaluation of the most elite free agent pitcher on the market this year. 

I realize that a baseball player’s value and success has many intangible aspects to consider.  That is why Derek Jeter just signed a 3 year/$51M contract as a 36-year old shortstop entering the final stages of his career.  Jeter has intrinsic value as an iconic New York Yankee, and he has 15 years of being one of the league’s most clutch performers in the biggest of spotlights.  But what can the Yankees realistically expect from an aging Jeter who has lost a step or two and isn’t getting any younger?  His statistics and actual on-field performance does not equate to the contract he received.  The years and numbers being offered to Cliff Lee elicit the same questions. 

Over his 8-year career, Lee is 102-61 with a 3.85 ERA.  He has had a very interesting career with many ups and downs.  After being acquired by the Indians in the infamous Bartolo Colon trade with Omar Minaya and the Montreal Expos (the trade that sent Colon to Montreal for Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips), he had a couple cups of coffee with Cleveland in 2002 and 2003.  He found some success between 2004-2006 by going 46-24 including an 18-win season in 2005.  But if you look deeper at his numbers, his ERA’s ranged between 3.79 and 5.43 during that time.  He also did not possess the same walk/strikeout ratio that we have grown accustomed to more recently.  During a dismal 2007 season, he was demoted to the minors to work on his mechanics and find himself.  He certainly did because his 2008 Cy Young season was one of the best statistical performances in recent history.  He went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, and in 223 innings he only walked 34 batters.  This dominant control would become Lee’s signature attribute.  He only walked 43 batters in 231 innings in 2009, and more amazingly, he only walked 18 batters in 212 innings in 2010.  That’s right, only 18 walks in the entire 2010 season split between Seattle and Texas.  However, his overall record the past two years was a collective 26-22 with a 3.20 ERA. 

There were some mitigating factors for his mediocre win/loss record since 2009.  He was traded in the middle of each season, including switching to the unfamiliar National League in 2009.  After he was traded to Seattle before the 2010 season, he was recovering from an injury and missed the beginning of the season.  The Mariners were also one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, so run support was not there for him.  Surprisngly, after he was traded to the Texas Rangers, who possessed a far superior offense and bullpen, Lee’s performance took a nose-dive down the stretch.  He compiled a 4-6 record with a 3.98 ERA in his 15 starts with the Rangers.  There were rumblings about his previous back injuries flaring up, and it seemed to make sense given his inconsistent pitching.  However, once the calendar turned to October, Lee became a different pitcher. 

Cliff Lee has pitched in the past two post-seasons with the Phillies and the Rangers.  In 2009, he went 4-0 including two wins against the Yankees in the World Series.  He didn’t just win these games – he dominated them.  He carried this success over to the 2010 playoffs where he went 3-0 in the first two rounds of the playoffs, including another dominant performance against the Yankees in the ALCS.  Through his first seven post-season games, he was 7-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA.  However, the 2010 World Series would not see Lee achieve the same success as he lost twice to the eventual champion San Francisco Giants.  He didn’t just lose, he got knocked around and looked like anything but a dominant ace pitcher.  And that is the lasting memory we have of the 2010 season.

So here we are during the off-season and Lee is getting offers of 6-7 years at $150M.  Yes, he is a good pitcher with some terrific success in the post-season prior to the World Series.  But if you break down his numbers and consider where he is in his career, he has likely maxed out by now.  At 32, he is almost beyond his prime and is coming off two very mediocre seasons.   His 2008 season is one for the record books and is unlikely to be repeated, especially by someone without the history of consistency.  Other pitchers who have received similar contracts, such as Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia, all had resumes consisting of multiple years of domination and consistency.  They are all generally around the same age and they all have likely reached their pinnacle of success in terms of statistical performance.  Here comes Cliff Lee seemingly out of nowhere since 2008 now commanding the same type of contract that these other stud pitchers have.  It is likely that if Lee signs with the Yankees, Rangers or Angels he will have success because these are all very good teams.  At 32, he likely does have a few more years left where those lofty expectations can be met.  But as we all know in the post-steroid era, baseball players typically do not get better once they reach their mid-30’s.  Especially a starting pitcher with a history of back injuries.  No one can fault Lee for seeking a contract of 7 years, especially when there are multiple teams willing to give it to him.  But the sensible thing for all teams involved would have been offering a 3 or 4 year contract to maximize their rate of return.  Even if Lee is successful and helps put a team over the top, what will this contract look like when he is 37, 38 or 39 years old and a shell of his former self?  Maybe these teams have so much financial security that they don’t even care.  So why should we care? 

We should care because as profitable as baseball is right now, there is no guarantee that things will remain the way they are.  Teams are generating more revenue and income than ever, thanks in part to television networks and overall interest and attendance at games.  But money does not grow on trees, so a team that makes a financial commitment like this had better be prepared to suffer through a devaluation at the end of the contract.  In 2016, whoever signs Lee and is paying him $23M will likely not be receiving their money’s worth for his performance.  That is just human nature.  But this contract could become an albatross and prevent the team from making other moves that it needs to.  Basically, signing Cliff Lee to such a contract is for a short-term goal with long-term repercussions.  But again I ask, is he really worth it?  His playoff performances the last two years seem to have masked the reality that Cliff Lee has had a very pedestrian career outside of his ridiculous 2008 season.  He is not likely going to get better, and he must accept the pressure and responsibility of being in the spotlight as one of the highest paid athletes in all of professional sports.  He is a simple man from Arkansas.  He is not flashy, he does not get in trouble, and he seems to enjoy his lifestyle living in relative obscurity.  This will all change once he signs on a dotted line for the projected years and dollars that have been offered. 

In summation, I am not saying that Cliff Lee isn’t a good pitcher or that teams wouldn’t be better with him on their pitching staff.  What I am saying is that he is being treated like an all-time great and someone who can be counted on for numbers that correlate to the dollars he is about to earn.  His overall resume does not demonstrate that.  He will help whomever he chooses to sign with, but what will that sentiment be a few years down the road?

Comments?  Thoughts?  Questions?

(E) michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com

(T) @FantasyJudgment