June 11, 2011 – Special Saturday Night Spectacular Six Fantasy Baseball Lines

Don’t adjust your calendars and put down that phone before you make an appointment with your in-network eye doctor.  It is not Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean we can’t compile a special list of fantasy baseball headlines and newsworthy events on other days of the week.  Please join me for a special edition of my featured lists.  Because I know how much you and everyone else loves alliteration, this edition will be slightly truncated to due to the alphabet.  So without further adieu, here is a Special Saturday Night Spectacular Six fantasy baseball headlines.

6. Hall of an Opportunity – The San Francisco Giants suffered another devastating injury to one of their starters.  This time, second baseman Freddy Sanchez sustained a serious shoulder injury which created an immediate need.  Enter veteran Bill Hall, who was released by the Astros earlier this season.  Hall should not be mistaken for anything resembling the Hall of Fame, or even Mel Hall for that matter.  But in terms of fantasy value, Hall could provide some power to  a relatively weak and shallow position.  He will get most of the at bats going forward, and the Giants do have a history of plucking discarded veterans off the waiver wire and rejuvenating their careers (see Pat Burrell and Cody Ross in 2010).   If you have issues at 2B or MI and need a quick fix, Hall could be your man.

5. Colon Cleansing – The New York Yankees are dropping like flies.  Just after it was announced that Joba Chamberlain is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery next Thursday, Yankees’ starter Bartolo Colon had to be removed from Saturday’s game due to tightness in his left hamstring sustained when he was running to cover first base.  He was pitching a shutout at the time and has been one of baseball’s great comeback stories of the year thus far.  MRI results are forthcoming, but the Yankees will likely be cautious with the portly veteran.  He could still be a valuable pickup in your fantasy league, so monitor the situation and his prognosis.

4. Final-Lee - After signing a huge contract to rejoin the Philadelphia Phillies, Cliff Lee was expected to be the 1A of the Phillies star-studded pitching staff.  He was also considered a lock as a stud fantasy pitcher due to his contributions in all relevant categories.  However, Lee has not produced the results that were anticipated thus far.  Not all of it was his fault as the Phillies struggled to score runs due to several injuries to key offensive players.  But he had failed to pitch in a manner that was commensurate with such a free agent contract – until this week.  In a two start Week 10, Lee dominated the Nationals and Cubs allowing a total of one run in 15 innings while striking out 17. He is now above.500 at 6-5 and he leads the majors in total strikeouts with 107.  If you can still manage to buy low on him, do it now because that train is about to leave the station.

3. Six Pence All the Richer – After being removed from Friday’s game for cautionary reasons, Astros’ outfielder Hunter Pence was back in the lineup on Saturday and extended his hitting streak to 22 games.  In those 22 games, Pence is batting .391 with 3 homeruns and 15 RBI.  He has literally carried Houston’s lineup by himself this year as he has emerged into one of the elite outfielders in baseball.  His overall average is up to .318 which is unfamiliar territory for the free-swinger.  With his ability to keep a good batting average, Pence now becomes even more valuable in roto leagues due to his contributions in all categories. 

2. Happy Anniversary, Mike Stanton – Earlier this week, Marlins’ young stud outfielder Mike Stanton celebrated the one year anniversary of his call-up to the big leagues.  In the 365 days since he arrived in Florida, Stanton has hit 37 homeruns which is the 7^th most in the majors, and 97 RBI which is 25^th overall in that time span.  Stanton is emerging as a true power threat, which could likely affect his batting average and total strikeouts.  But there is no denying his homerun and RBI output as he remains someone to actively target in all fantasy baseball formats.  Just make sure you don’t mistaken him for the retired white, left-handed relief pitcher

1. Boston Tea Party – After a horrendous 0-6 and 2-8 start to the season, the Boston Red Sox have finally clicked and are the hottest team in all of baseball lately.  They sit two games ahead of the Yankees in 1^st place in the AL East thanks in part to their tremendous lineup and starting pitching.  The recommendation at this point is to acquire anyone you can from the Red Sox’s lineup or roster because everyone is hitting.  Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford have begun living up to expectations and proving why they were worth $148 million.  Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and David Ortiz have been locked in for quite some time and should be targeted via trade in your fantasy league.  As for the pitching, the top 3 of Lester, Beckett and Buccholz should have plenty of run support this year and will contribute in all categories except saves

New Fantasy Judgment decision – fantasy baseball trade rejected (Cole Hamels)

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE

Decided June 8, 2011

Cite as 3 F.J. 26 (June 2011)

Factual Background

A rotisserie fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “The Incontinent League”) utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams within the Roto league.  This is an NL-only keeper league where each team is permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with each individual player allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) years.  Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept.  This Roto league also has a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.   

As with many rotisserie leagues, the subject Roto league uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money.  For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases.  For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves.  Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Procedural History

The 4 Ponies have made a trade with the Beaver Hunters.  The 4 Ponies traded Jhoulys Chacin (SP-COL) and Jordan Lyles (SP-HOU) to the Beaver Hunters in exchange for Cole Hamels (SP-PHI) and Leo Nunez (RP-FLA).

According to the Commissioner of the Incontinent League, several members of the league have challenged this trade as being too lopsided.  There are no known issues between the two teams involved in the trade, or with other teams that have challenged the validity of the trade. 

Issue Presented

(1)   Should the trade between the 4 Ponies and the Beaver Hunters be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades.  The standard of review has been that people pay money to purchase a team in a league, draft their team, and manage it accordingly.  Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness.  The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league.  A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league.  The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.  In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season.  They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft.  In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent.

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or under-the-table dealings going on between teams.  The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so assumptions will be made that this is not an issue. 

The Court has always held that the approval or rejection of a trade is based purely on its fairness, free from collusion, and in the best interests of the league.  Whether a trade is intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis.  The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved.  See Carson City Cocks v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).

At first glance, the trade of Jhoulys Chacin and Jordan Lyles in exchange for Cole Hamels and Leo Nunez does not look even.  The reason for initial pause is because Hamels is unequivocally one of the top pitchers in both real and fantasy baseball, and any trade he is involved in should likely have a player of equal or approximate value on the other side.  One exception to this is in a keeper league where teams out of playoff contention are looking to build for the future by trading expensive, star players in exchange for cheaper prospects.  It should be noted that this trade was made for Week 10 of the fantasy baseball season and no team in the Incontinent League has been mathematically eliminated from a playoff spot or precluded from a monetary prize.  Another reason to question the trade on its face is the inclusion of Nunez WITH Hamels in the deal.  Nunez does not possess the same name recognition as Hamels, but all he has done is lead the National League in saves thus far in 2011.  Given the Incontinent League is NL-only, Nunez has considerable value now as the best closer in the league.  On the contrary, both Chacin and Lyles are prospects in theRockiesand Astros organizations respectively.  Chacin has almost a year’s worth of big league experience and has had some moderate success thus far.  Lyles only recently made his debut and will likely be sent back down to the minors.  Neither of them elicits the same projected value to warrant comparison to Hamels and Nunez collectively.

When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective.  See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin).  This trade at issue involves three starting pitchers and one closer.  Prior to the trade, the Beaver Hunters (in 10^th place at the time) had a pitching staff that consisted of Hamels, Yovani Gallardo and Johnny Cueto as its best starting pitchers.  They also had Nunez, Carlos Marmol and Craig Kimbrel as closers.  Based on this, it can be justified why the Beaver Hunters would trade Nunez because they are still left with two top closers and can compete for points in the saves, ERA, and WHIP categories.  However, removing Hamels from their staff significantly weakened their starting pitching.  Additionally, the Beaver Hunters current offensive roster consists of Ryan Braun and a plethora of average platoon players.  Granted, they have Ryan Zimmerman and Buster Posey on the disabled list which has affected their team.  But the overarching commentary on the Beaver Hunters’ roster is that they are in desperate need of offensive help.  Trading Hamels and Nunez would make more sense if the Beaver Hunters were acquiring commensurate players to improve their offense.  Chacin is a young and rising pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance early in his career.  But he is hardly as productive or consistent as Hamels.  Lyles is another young prospect with the Astros who recently made his major league debut due to injuries inHouston’s rotation.  However, with Wandy Rodriguez set to be activated from the disable list this week, it is likely that Lyles will be sent back down to the minors as the corresponding move.  Based on the aforementioned reasons, the Court cannot reasonably infer how the Beaver Hunters are benefiting from acquiring Chacin and Lyles.

In terms of keeper league status and salary cap value, this trade doesn’t make sense either.  Nunez only costs $0.10 and is in his final year under contract, which means he will be available in the 2012 draft.  However, Hamels is only in his first year under contract and can still be kept for an additional two years at $3.10.  It must be considered where these players are in terms of their career which is helpful in analyzing possible motivation to perform.  Hamels is arbitration-eligible after the season when his current contract expires with the Phillies.  He is clearly motivated to justify seeking an arbitration award comparable to Tim Lincecum’s record-setting deal.  After he likely agrees to a one-year contract with the Phillies, he will be pitching in 2012 as a pending free agent.  This should serve as an extra motivating factor for him to succeed as he will likely be seeking Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee type years and dollars on the open market.  The Beaver Hunters have him locked up under contract for these important seasons.  To trade him away for unequivocal value in return is incomprehensible.  Even assuming arguendo that Jhoulys Chacin’s potential is equivalent for Hamels’ current value, Chacin is only signed for one more year before he re-enters the Incontinent League’s draft.  So the Beaver Hunters are missing out on one whole year of productivity in this exchange.  From a financial standpoint, the Beaver Hunters are only gaining $1.70 in net salary cap space by making this trade.  In a league with a $36.00 salary cap, that does not represent a significant enough amount when dealing with a players of Hamels’ magnitude.

As referenced in Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010), the dichotomy between the 4 Ponies and the Beaver Hunters’ motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues.  If this trade had been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would vehemently reject it. 

It should be reiterated that the Court typically favors a league owner’s ability to make trades and manager the roster according to his/her own preferences and judgments.  When a person pays money to participate in a fantasy league, the presumption is that he/she is permitted to make whatever decisions they feel are best for their team.  However, when a trade such as this is proposed, it throws off the competitive balance of the league and creates a slippery slope for future trades.  The Court has no issues with the idea of trading Cole Hamels and/or Leo Nunez.  However, given what the Beaver Hunters were receiving in return, the Court cannot endorse such a maneuver due to the inequity of the return package.  Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade is unfair, uneven, and should be modified before being granted approval.  The trade should be rejected as it fails to comport with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Fantasy Baseball – Buy Low, Sell High (by hotfantasypicks.com)

I wanted to share with you an article written by Ryan Courtney of Hot Fantasy Picks (www.hotfantasypicks.com) where he breaks down some options to either buy low or sell high in fantasy baseball leagues.  Going forward, we will likely continue this collaborative effort to share material with each other’s audience.  Be sure to check out his website and find him on Facebook and Twitter (as if I needed to remind you – wink, wink).  Without further adieu, here is Mr. Courtney’s debut post with some insightful fantasy baseball advice.

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This week we are recapping the first couple months of the season, checking in on my reliability, and of course bringing you some new Buy Low, Sell High candidates.  I mean, that’s why you read after all, isn’t it?  While this column is a tricky one to write, I think others have a tendency to over-complicate their analysis due to the absurd amount of statistical information at our disposal.  However, many picks are rather cut and dry and don’t require the many peripheral stats available to get a clear look into the future.  One of the biggest pitfalls for fantasy owners is getting caught up in the moment.  When someone is playing good it’s natural to think that they’ll always play this well.  The opposite is true as well.  I challenge you to remain objective in your fantasy baseball analysis and to “think twice, act once” as a fantasy baseball manager.

It seems hard to believe that we’ve wrapped up two months of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball season.  As always, there have been some huge disappointments and also some pleasant surprises.  Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the year has been Hanley Ramirez although his numbers slightly improved through the month of May.  It will take a couple months of monster output in order to get him back on track and seeing as he’s dealing with a back injury and bruised right foot, it doesn’t look like a sure thing that it will happen anytime soon.  However, HanRam owners are beyond sick of staring at his name on their team.  He’s a deal to be had cheaply as many are losing faith in him entirely and feel he’s simply forgotten how to hit the ball.  You’ll be able to get him for a pack of peanuts right now.

One of the biggest surprises of the year has been Kyle Lohse.  As his ERA continues to hover around 2.00, he also continues to perplex me.  In a situation like this you tend to turn to peripherals.  A few stand out including his walk rate and HR rate each being approximately 2% lower than his career average.  He also hasn’t had a runner steal a base yet while on the mound this year which helps a little bit  and double play percentage which is slightly higher than his career average.  Overall, it seems Lohse is getting the advantage everywhere he needs it.  With a career ERA of 4.66 and WHIP of 1.41 over the previous decade, I find it hard to believe that he’ll maintain a 2.13 ERA and 0.92 WHIP or anywhere near that throughout the remainder of the season.  The law of averages will come into play and you’ll see a serious drop off in his production.

Now, for a little analysis of my picks year-to-date.  I’ve included players that have been recommended in any of my BuyLow, SellHigh articles.  Looking back, it’s funny to think that some of these players ever made the lists considering some of their season stat lines are now either so laughable or so unbelievably good.  However, that’s the entire point of these articles in that you want to be able to look back and think man I’m glad I moved that guy when I did.  Baseball is such a long season and there are so many high’s and low’s.  It’s important to get on the good side of all of those decisions from the beginning to the end of the season.

SPOT ON HITS

Fellas that I feel I nailed with my assessment.

Buy Low’s: Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Evan Longoria, Clay Bucholz

Sell High’s: Sam Fuld, Johnny Gomes, Aaron Harang, Carlos Gomez, Ben Zobrist, Tom Gorzelanny, Placido Polanco, Alfonso Soriano

FLAT OUT MISSES

Guys that I completely whiffed on.

Buy Low’s: Justin Morneau, Ryan Zimmerman

Sell High’s: Justin Masterson, Johnny Damon, Josh Beckett

ON THE FRINGE

These guys are just barely qualifying as a Buy Low or Sell High.

Buy Low’s: Mat Latos, Matt Cain, Josh Hamilton, Dustin Pedroia, Nelson Cruz

Sell High’s: Ryan Roberts, Alex Gordon

STICKING TO MY GUNS

I still strongly believe that these guys are accurate picks.  Perhaps, the timing is a little off to buy or sell, but I’m not ready to throw in the towel.

Buy Low’s: Adam Dunn, Ubaldo Jimenez, Hanley Ramirez, Shin Soo Choo, Chris Carpenter

Sell High’s: Kyle Lohse, Lance Berkman, Matt Joyce, Jeff Francouer

Bonus Buy Low, Sell High Picks

Buy Low’s:

• Ryan Howard — While hitting for average has never been Howard’s strong suit, his 30-day .208 batting average is well below par even for the big slugger.  With a career average of .277 and a large body of work to back that up, you can bet that he’ll rebound in a quick way.  May has historically been his worst performing month, while he performs his best after the All-Star break and typically hits 30 points higher.  While you won’t be able to pull a fast one on any owner, right now Howard is a solid investment for the remainder of the year.
• Ichiro Suzuki — One of the league’s most consistent players.  He’s never had under 200 hits in a season.  However, he’s currently on pace to finish under 200 hits unless he picks up his pace.  He is currently batting 50 points below his career batting average.  Although he’s definitely aging and regression is unavoidable, one of the league’s most professional players isn’t someone you should pass by.  He’s striking out less, walking slightly more, and stealing just about as many bases as he always has.  If you look deeper, you’ll see that his BABIP rests at .290 which is 65 points lower than his career average while his line drive rate is also significantly lower.  These numbers suggest a rebound is eminent.  Right now is the time to buy Ichiro for a bargain.
• Jon Lester — As one of the top pitchers in the American League for the last three years, a slump like is exactly what savvy fantasy baseball owners should be looking for.  The most notable statistic that has contributed to his current rough patch are the number of home runs he’s given up.  On the year, 3.1% of plate appearances against him result in a home run.  His career average is 2.1%.  That is roughly 50% more home runs than normal.  You can expect this number to regress to norm.  Count on Lester to rebound as he’s a workhorse who seems to always throw over 200 innings, has recorded an average of 16.6 wins/season the last three years and has struck out over 9/game the last 2+ years.  Even the best pitchers go through rough patches and Lester has never recieved the credit he’s deserved for the accomplishments he’s amassed pitching in baseball’s toughest division.  Historically, two of his best performing months are June and July, so act quickly to get him on your team.  I drafted him on three of my teams and I’m confident that he’ll finish the season once again in the top ten pitchers in the league.

Sell High’s:

• Anibal Sanchez — If it weren’t for his inability to stay off of the disabled list, I wouldn’t place Sanchez on this list.  However, I don’t feel that he has the physical makeup to throw a full season’s workload.  Last year was his highest professional innings total at 195 innings pitched.  That is more than his previous three years combined.  Yes, when Anibal is healthy he is a solid starter and he has pitched incredibly well this year.  However, why wouldn’t you want to trade him for someone such as Jon Lester (above) who is down in the dumps right now, but has been one of the best pitchers in the American League for the last couple of years?  You need to have pitchers who will be around all year and keeping Sanchez in your lineup is a risk you shouldn’t need to take.
• Erik Bedard — Don’t get me wrong.  I’m on the band wagon right now with everyone else.  Bedard is pitching lights out over the last month or so.  Here’s the problem I have with him.  He’s never thrown over 200 innings and he hasn’t thrown over 100 innings since 2007.  He’s already at 58 innings on the year meaning that waiting too much longer to move him is like playing Russian Roulette.  His value will never be higher this year as he’s given up 3 or fewer runs for 7 straight starts while lowering his season ERA to 3.41.  He was a marquis free agent a few years back and his name alone will raise his value when you put him in an offer.  Feel free to run with him for another start or two, but don’t push your luck.  Start sorting through your trade options.
• Corey Patterson — It’s always funny to watch such a bonified role player get hyped up.  Corey Patterson is your latest such candidate.  And rightly so.  Over the last 30 days, Patterson is batting .297, slugging .458 with 2 HR, 13 extra base hits, and 4 steals.  About the only thing certain with Patterson is that he will fall right back down to earth.  It will happen soon folks.  For years, Patterson has tugged at my heart strings with his streaky play.  However, each time he fades away into baseball oblivion.  As a former 3rd overall pick, you expect a lot out of him, but he just can’t sustain his production which can be verified by a decade of futility.  My best advice is that you pick him up only to trade him away.

May 31, 2011 – Tuesday Top Ten Fantasy Baseball Headlines

It’s Tuesday which means it is time for another edition of the Top Ten list.  Without further adieu, let’s dive right into the Top Ten fantasy baseball headlines for this last day of May.

10. Better Late Than Never – Ryan Vogelsong of the San Francisco Giants has come full circle in his career to finally fulfill the expectations placed on him almost a decade ago.  Vogelsong, initially drafted by the Giants, was the top prospect included in the trade that brought Jason Schmidt to San Francisco from Pittsburgh.  The Pirates, who seem to always be in the business of providing other teams with key pieces to their puzzles, were in one of their rebuilding modes and traded away their ace pitcher who was facing free agency.  The Bucs acquired Vogelsong with the hopes that he would become the anchor of their rotation for many years.  However, Vogelsong sustained an injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2002.  He would never attain any success with Pittsburgh through the 2006 season.  He then kicked around Japan and had minor league stints with the Phillies and Angels until the Giants re-signed him before the 2011 season.  After Barry Zito got injured, Vogelsong got the call to replace him and has been tremendous.  He is currently 3-1 with a sparkling 1.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts in 40 innings.  The Giants will be hard-pressed to take him out of the rotation when Zito returns.  He has done enough to warrant a pickup in your league, either NL-only or mixed, but monitor the situation in case he hits a wall or gets bumped when Zito returns.

9. Un-bereavable! – Jose Reyes was placed on the Bereavement List on Monday after the passing of his grandmother.  Initial reports were that Reyes might miss the entire week to be with his family.  It is now being reported by the Mets that they expect him back by Thursday, which is good news for fantasy owners.  The announcement that he was going to be out was made on Monday morning, which may not have been enough notice for owners to replace him in their lineups.  At least now it looks like the Mets and fantasy owners will get four games out of Reyes for the week.  He has been extremely hot lately, so hopefully this family situation does not throw him off track.

8. Another Soriano Gets Hurt – Last week, the New York Yankees announced that relief pitcher Rafael Soriano would be out another 6-8 weeks with an arm injury that apparently does not require surgery.  Now, Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano has been placed on the disabled list with an injury to his left leg.  The Cubs outfield has already been depleted with Marlon Byrd’s injury stemming from his beaning against the Red Sox.  Tyler Colvin has been recalled to replace Soriano on the roster.  Colvin played very well in 2010 and should have an opportunity to contribute while Soriano and Byrd are out.  Other outfield options such as Reed Johnson and Kosuke Fukudome do not provide much in terms of power or run production.  Colvin is the guy to add if you are looking for a temporary fix.

7. Mauer’s Not Moving – Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has said that when Joe Mauer returns from the disabled list, he will go right back behind the plate as the team’s primary catcher.  This decision was made for the purposes of 2011, but going forward, it would be foolish for Minnesota not to start planning ahead for Mauer to find another position.  His draft value was completely overrated, as with all other catchers, simply because of their tendencies to get hurt and the fact they cannot play everyday.  If you own him on your fantasy team, see what you can get for him in a trade.  Relying on Mauer for the remainder of the season will only leave you with disappointment and heartache – much like your 8th grade dance. 

6. It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane, It’s Zimmerman! – Nationals star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is set to play in some extended spring training games as he begins his journey back to the big leagues.  Zimmerman has missed most of the season and will be a welcome addition to both the Nationals’ lineup and fantasy owners’ rosters.  In a year when third base has been as weak a position as there is in fantasy baseball, Zimmerman was arguably the second or third best option.  He was drafted quite early in many drafts, so his injury put a lot of owners in a pinch.  When healthy, Zimmerman will contribute in all roto categories.  His presence in the lineup should also help Jayson Werth who has struggled mightily to carry the Nationals’ offense and justify his ridiculous contract.

5. Saved by the Bell – Padres’ closer Heath Bell had a frustrating start to the season with very few save opportunities through the middle of May.  This was because the Padres didn’t have many leads in games, or when they won games it was by a very large margin.  Now Bell has picked up three saves in the last four games and appears to be on track, along with the Padres’ propensity for playing in very close games.  Bell is playing for a contract this year, and could be a potential trade candidate.  He would obviously like to remain a closer, but it is distinctly possible he gets dealt to a team needing 8th inning help.  Continue to ride Bell’s wave as he accumulates saves, but I would recommend you explore trade options for him in case he is traded out of his closer’s role.

4. Ike…Yikes – Mets’ first baseman Ike Davis has been on the disabled list for several weeks with a bone bruise and calf strain as a result of a collision with David Wright in Colorado.  Initially the Mets thought Davis would be back relatively quickly, but a recent MRI has shown that the bone bruise has not healed as quickly or as well as they would have liked.  The Mets anticipate Davis being in a walking boot for another three weeks, which means he will not be doing any rehab or baseball activities until the end of June at the earliest.  This is not good news for the Mets or fantasy owners who have come to rely on Davis as a viable option at first base in both NL-only and mixed leagues.  His replacement, Daniel Murphy, is too inconsistent to consider as a worthwhile replacement on your fantasy team.

3. Mo’ Injuries, Mo’ Problems for Morneau – Twins first baseman Justin Morneau said that he has been playing with a pinched nerve in his left shoulder and neck that will likely linger for the rest of the season.  He clearly hasn’t been the same since he suffered a concussion in July 2010, and most people attributed his struggles and lack of power to the effects of his head injury.  However, this revelation of a pinched nerve could easily be the reason why Morneau looks like a shell of his former self.  Either way, this does not bode well for fantasy owners who were relying on power production from him.  I would recommend exploring trade options for an upgrade at first base because it is questionable what kind of production you can expect from Morneau for the rest of the year.  With the Twins so far out of playoff contention, Ron Gardenhire is smart enough not to unnecessarily expose Morneau to any additional risks or injuries.

2. Nothing Worse Than an Injured Johnson – Marlins’ ace pitcher Josh Johnson is eligible to come off the disabled list on June 1, but manager Fredi Gonzalez does not believe that is likely.  Johnson is still not 100% but is scheduled to throw a bullpen session later this week.  He will need sevetal bullpen sessions and possibly some minor league rehab starts before he comes back.  The Marlins don’t need another starter until June 7, but it is not likely that Johnson can be relied on for his return on that day.  Fantasy owners should keep him stashed on the DL and try and ride this out until he comes back.  He has a history of injuries so this is not all that surprising.  But if he misses any extended period of time beyond June 7, it may be wise to start exploring some trade opportunities for a starting pitcher.

1. Bruce is The Boss – Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds is the hottest player in baseball right now.  Manager Dusty Baker moved him into the cleanup spot for today’s game against the Brewers.  Bruce was named National League player of the week after batting .354 with four home runs and 13 RBI over a seven game stretch from May 23-29.  During the entire month of May, Bruce is batting .346 with 12 homers and 32 RBI.  I was very high on him coming into the season as I thought he would put it all together after a few years of learning how to hit big league pitching.  Bruce has tremendous power and could be a 40-homerun guy.  He hits in a loaded lineup and in a great hitter’s park.  While he will not likely maintain this torrid pace for the entire season, he is arguably one of the top fantasy players in the entire league and  someone that you should target in trade discussions.  Lock him up in all keeper leagues.

New Fantasy Judgment decision – fantasy baseball trade (Josh Johnson)

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

Carson City Cocks v. Stud Muffins

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM

THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE

 Decided May 16, 2011

Cite as 3 F.J. 23 (May 2011)

Factual Background

A rotisserie fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “The Incontinent League”) utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams within the Roto league.  This is an NL-only keeper league where each team is permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with each individual player allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) years.  Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept.  This Roto league also has a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.   

As with many rotisserie leagues, the subject Roto league uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money.  For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases.  For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves.  Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Procedural History

The Carson City Cocks have made a trade with the Stud Muffins.  The Carson City Cocks traded J.J. Putz (RP-ARZ) and Kyle McClellan (SP-STL) to the Stud Muffins in exchange for Josh Johnson (SP-FLA). 

Issue Presented

(1)   Should the trade between the Carson City Cocks and the Stud Muffins be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades.  The standard of review has been that people pay money to purchase a team in a league, draft their team, and manage it accordingly.  Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness.  The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league.  A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league.  The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.  In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season.  They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft.  In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent.

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or under-the-table dealings going on between teams.  The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so assumptions will be made that this is not an issue. 

At first glance, the trade of J.J. Putz and Kyle McClellan in exchange for Josh Johnson looks peculiar.  The reason for initial pause is because Johnson is unequivocally one of the top pitchers in both real and fantasy baseball, and Putz and McClellan are not household names.  It is rare to see a superstar of this caliber involved in a trade that does not include either another top superstar or prime prospects for the future in keeper leagues.  However, the Court has always held that its approval or rejection of a trade is based purely on its fairness, free from collusion, and in the best interests of the league.  Whether a trade is intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis.  Clearly this trade will raise some eyebrows by other members of the league, but the virtue of the trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. 

When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective.  See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin).  This trade involved two starting pitchers and one closer.  Prior to the trade, the Stud Muffins did not have any closers on their roster.  The relief pitchers they had were all set-up relievers, including Kerry Wood, Sergio Romo and Matt Lindstrom.  Presumably, the Stud Muffins were near the bottom of the rankings in saves since these relief pitchers have not had, nor will they have, many opportunities to close games for their respective teams.  In fact, they are set-up men for three of the best closers in baseball (Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson and Huston Street, respectively).  It is clear that the Stud Muffins were in need of a closer.  They also had Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, and Clayton Richard as starting pitchers, so dealing Johnson was not going to leave them completely empty.  With respect to the Carson City Cocks, they could afford to trade Putz because they also have Joel Hanrahan and Vicente Padilla as closers.  The addition of Johnson was more crucial to improve the Carson City Cocks’ starting pitching which only consisted of Jorge de la Rosa, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jordan Zimmermann. 

 The wild card in this trade is Kyle McClellan.  He is a converted relief pitcher thrust into the Cardinals’ rotation due to the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training.  McClellan has been impressive thus far, despite losing his last start.  The Cardinals have played better than was expected of them, thanks in large part to McClellan’s emergence as a reliable starter. 

Here is a statistical comparison of all players involved through May 15, 2011:

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	WHIP	Saves
Josh Johnson	3	53	1.63	0.90	0
Kyle McClellan	5	23	3.62	1.39	0
J.J. Putz	0	14	2.40	1.13	9

As good as Josh Johnson is, he simply does not win a lot of games.  This is not his fault, but rather as a result of poor run support or an inefficient bullpen.  Johnson’s career high in wins is 15 back in 2009.  In 2010, when he clearly had a better season all around, he only won 11 games and also suffered from some injuries.  Currently, Johnson leads the National League in both ERA and WHIP.  While his production in those categories is unparalleled, he is not a reliable source for wins for the aforementioned reasons.  McClellan, still not completely proven, has at least demonstrated he will keep his team in games and last long enough to win.  It would not be all that surprising if McClellan actually wins more games than Johnson in 2011.  As we know, win totals do not measure the quality of a pitcher in real baseball.  But in fantasy baseball, numbers and statistics are gospel (most times).

In terms of keeper league status and salary cap value, this trade is almost equivocal.  All players involved are in their first year under contract with their respective teams.  Johnson is worth $3.40 while McClellan is worth $0.90 and Putz is worth $2.30.  The Stud Muffins, currently in seventh place, will gain $0.20 in salary cap space which is not significant enough to factor into the evaluation given the equality of the players involved.  See Smittydogs v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 10, 11 (April 2011) (holding that a $0.10 differential amongst the players salaries was not enough to factor into the Court’s evaluation).

As referenced in Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010), the dichotomy between the Carson City Cocks and the Stud Muffins’ motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues.  However, had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would still likely approve it. 

Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade is fair, equal, and free of collusion.  The trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Passing Judgment – Bryce Harper is a Primadonna Prospect

I recently had the fortune of being able to see Bryce Harper, the #1 pick in the 2010 MLB draft, play in a minor league game when the Washington Nationals’ Single A team came to Lakewood, NJ to play the Blueclaws (Phillies).  When I say I had the “fortune” I mean that there is something special about being able to see a highly-touted prospect, who will more than likely achieve great things down the road, in his professional baseball infancy.  If Harper becomes the star player most people project him to be, it would be neat knowing I saw him play when he was literally just starting his career.

But along with the excitement of watching the beginning of a potentially great career came the harsh reality that plagues numerous successful athletes.  I had heard and read the rumors and gossip about Harper being a primadonna.  I suspected he may act like a diva given the attention he has gotten.  But I didn’t know for sure.  Then it was all but confirmed for me when a very reliable source informed me that Harper alienated himself from his teammates by demanding special treatment and attention.  He has questioned why he needs to participate in team drills and do all of the other necessary activities that teams do together.  He thinks he should be in Double A…right now…not even a year after being drafted as an 18-year old kid. 

This story is not unfamiliar.  There are plenty of athletes out there who do the same thing and act the same way.  There are plenty of young athletes who have not proven anything at the professional level that do it.  It’s not surprising, but it is still disappointing.  Harper has the privilege of playing baseball for a living.  He has the blessing of possessing tremendous talent and athletic ability.  He has the fortune of being so young with such a bright future ahead of him.  But right now he lacks the maturity to respect the game, his peers, his coaches, and himself.  He still has a lot to learn about the game of baseball and how it is supposed to be played. 

In the game I saw him play, Harper ran the gamut in terms of both good and poor qualities.  In his first at bat, he struck out looking against a left-handed pitcher.  The fact he struck out was not alarming, but it was obvious watching his approach that he was at a complete loss on what to expect from the pitcher.  He quickly fell behind in the count before fouling off a couple pitches on swings that were defensive.  He would eventually strike out looking at a fastball on a pitch where he was clearly expecting something off-speed.  In a later at bat, Harper hit a swinging but out in front of home plate and hustled to first base beating the throw for an infield hit.  I commented to my friends that he showed great hustle on that play.  But in his final at bat, he skied a lazy flyball to center field that was easily caught.  But I watched Harper the entire time and he lazily jogged to first base, not even reaching the bag by the time the centerfielder caught the ball.  This bothered me, as it bothers me when any major leaguer doesn’t run a ball out no matter where it is it. 

I am not going to indict Harper because he didn’t run a flyball out.  But I will criticize him for his lackadaisical attitude when he thinks he is beyond this level at this point.  There is a reason why baseball has a minor league system and almost every player goes through it before reaching the big leagues.  Harper is learning how to play the outfield, how to play against equal or better competition, and how to become a professional baseball player.  Each level of the minor leagues has its own purpose and set of skills to learn.  Harper can learn a lot if he wants to, which can only benefit him as he progresses through the Nationals’ system and eventually up to D.C.

Stephen Strasburg, the #1 pick in 2009 and phenom during his major league tenure in 2010, had four years of college to both grow up and improve his craft.  Harper attended the College of Southern Nevada for one year, as a 17-year old, and was then drafted in 2010 as an 18-year old kid.  Those years of college experience, in both life and baseball, helped Strasburg possess the maturity and poise necessary to become successful at the major league level.  Harper should be using this time in the low minor league levels to accumulate knowledge and experience that will better serve him later on.  He should also learn to ingratiate himself better with his teammates because the reputation he is building forhimself will not bode well down the road.

A change of attitude and perspective is not hard to do.  But Harper must realize that himself.  His talent and skillset will eventually speak for itself.  Anyone who has to constantly remind others of how great they are probably isn’t that great to begin with.  Harper may become great.  I’d just rather find that out for myself by watching him play rather than listen to him telling me that.

The Art of Making a Fantasy Baseball Trade

Today I made a significant trade in one of my fantasy baseball leagues.  This is the league where I am the commissioner of an 18-team, head to head, mixed, points league where pitching is the key to success.  Thus far, my staff has not performed up to standards that are even below my mediocre expectations.  I have Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly, Jhoulys Chacin, Javier Vazquez, Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg.  We start any six pitchers, and wins and saves are both worth ten points.  Additionally, quality starts are worth five, strikeouts are worth two each, and there are negative points for losses, blown saves, walks, and earned runs allowed.  I have suffered from poor production and some poor decision-making as I had Chacin on the bench for one of his big starts, and my unwarranted faith in Vazquez has led me to mock his being on the bereavement list. 

Every year I tend to make at least one blockbuster acquisition, so I began thinking big in order to improve my pitching.  I knew I would have to make an enticing offer to someone who needed some offense, so I decided to reap the benefits of Lance Berkman’s insane start to the season.  I recently sang the praises of the Big Puma (see http://fantasyjudgment.wordpress.com/2011/05/06/passing-judgment-the-resurgence-of-lance-berkman/) as he has enjoyed a renaissance thus far in 2011.  But the reality is that he cannot maintain this pace over the course of the season.  He is very likely going to miss some time at some point due to injuries, and his 35-year old body cannot sustain playing everyday in the outfield.  So I offered Berkman and Kevin Gregg for Cliff Lee figuring it would be rejected but hopeful there would be a counteroffer.  Sure enough, my fellow league member preferred a starter and asked for Harang.  It was a done deal for me.

Cliff Lee addresses the media at the press conference announcing that he has been traded to my fantasy team.

Cliff Lee is also a topic I have written about before (see http://fantasyjudgment.wordpress.com/2010/12/14/cliffs-notes-my-thoughts-on-the-cliff-lee-signing/).  I made the arguments that Lee is a good pitcher, but his mediocre regular seasons in 2009 and 2010 seem to be forgotten due to his dominant playoff performances the last couple years.  And for the purposes of fantasy baseball, the regular season is all that counts.  While my thoughts on Lee remain the same, he is still a tremendous upgrade for me.  He has been victimized by poor run support, but that should change going forward because Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, and Domonic Brown are not far away from joining the already respectable lineup.  Even in a loss, Lee will still throw a quality start with a lot of strikeouts and few walks. 

As I stated before, pitching is what wins championships in the OBFBL.  I have won the league three times (1999, 2002, and 2007), and each time was because I had multiple dominant pitchers.  This year is one of the only years I have ever gone with the multiple stud closer route (Bell and Marmom).  With saves being worth as much as wins, they ranked near the top of all pitchers in 2010, so it was a relative no-brainer to draft them given who was available.  Now adding Lee into the mix should give me a more formidable staff.

The beauty of making fantasy baseball trades is that there is always a nervous sensation you get because you wonder whether you are getting screwed or whether you will come to regret your decision.  I have never regretted any trade I have ever made, even if things just didn’t work out.  I don’t trade out of desperation or from a position of weakness.  I target what my specific needs are and figure out the least I can give up to acquire that need.  That is what I did here.  Sure I will miss Berkman’s bat in my lineup, but I am counting on him tailing off at some point.  Now I need to acquire another hitter, and with the pitching excess I have, that is the direction I will go.

The other key to making effective fantasy baseball trades is to be patient and have some self-restraint.  I previously wrote about not over-reacting so early in the season (see http://fantasyjudgment.wordpress.com/2011/04/12/passing-judgment-dont-overreact-after-one-week/), and it directly applies to making smart trades and decisions.  I was not happy with how my team performed after five weeks and seven games (we play divisional doubleheaders every few weeks), but I waited until the right opportunity presented itself to get the best deal possible.  If I made this offer a few weeks ago, it likely would have been rejected because my fellow league owner would have wanted to wait and see how Lee would continue to do, and he may not have believed in Berkman after such a small sample.  But now 20% into the season, there was a large enough body of work to convince him that Berkman was worth acquiring for a #1 fantasy starting pitcher.  It also helped that Harang has been so good thus far because he would have had no value earlier in the year.  So, in the words of the great Jedi master, Yoda, “Patient must you be.”

 

Passing Judgment – The Resurgence of Lance Berkman

I normally don’t like to say “I told you so,” but in this case I am going to.  I told you so.  Once Lance Berkman signed a free agent contract with the St. Louis Cardinals this past off-season, I immediately predicted that he would have a bounceback year and thrive in the St. Louis lineup hitting behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.  It can’t be that surprising that Berkman has performed this well so far given he is still only 35 years old and is not that far removed from his typically impressive statistics.  The last two seasons have seen Berkman’s numbers slip due to injuries and lack of playing time.  It was apparent his power had been sapped due to nagging injuries in 2009 and 2010, and he seemed to be overcompensating by becoming less patient at the plate.  His shortcomings were even more magnified after he was traded to the Yankees in 2010 and struggled mightily down the stretch as the Bronx Bombers’ primary designated hitter.  But he did hit well in the 2010 playoffs, which would turn out to be a precursor to his complete resurgence in 2o11.

Lance Berkman sticks his tongue out at those who thought that his days of elite fantasy production were done.

Berkman was one of the most prolific homerun hitters of the 2000′s coupled with great plate discipline and a high OPS.   But he looked like an old 33 when his numbers dwindled in 2009, and then eventually he was sent packing from Houston where he had spent his entire professional career.  The Cardinals intelligently signed Berkman to a relatively pedestrian contract which has turned out to be a bargain.  Through May 5, 2011, Berkman is hitting an impressive .392 with 10 homeruns and 32 RBI.  His .775 slugging percentage and 1.237 OPS are staggeringly good.  While he will likely tail off at some point because this is an incredible pace to maintain, he has re-established himself as one of baseball’s premiere hitters and one of fantasy baseball’s elite players.  The concern for him will be staying healthy.  At 35, he is transitioning back into the outfield on a full-time basis which could be rough on his legs.  But Tony LaRussa is smart enough to give Berkman enough rest to keep him fresh.  Berkman can also play first base to spell Albert Pujols on the rare occasion he is given a day off or suffering from an injury.

In 2011 fantasy baseball drafts, Berkman was likely off everyone’s radar, and deservingly so.  But I targeted him between rounds 8-14 in snake drafts and made sure I got him because I knew what he was capable of in his new environment.  In my 18-team head to head points league, Berkman has the most fantasy points of any offensive player.  His dual eligibility at 1B and OF also makes him extremely valuable.  That begs the question whether you should look to deal him now while his value is so high.  A good argument can be made that he has peaked and the only direction he can go is down.  But I would argue against that and recommend that you ride his coattails as long as possible because as long as he is healthy, you can expect normal Berkman-esque production throughout the season.

New Fantasy Judgment decision – Smittydogs vs. Stud Muffins (fantasy baseball trade dispute)

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

Smittydogs v. Stud Muffins

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM

THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE

Decided May 4, 2011

Cite as 3 F.J. 16 (May 2011)

Factual Background

A rotisserie fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “The Incontinent League”) utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams within the Roto league.  This is an NL-only keeper league where each team is permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with each individual player allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) years.  Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept.  This Roto league also has a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.   

As with many rotisserie leagues, the subject Roto league uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money.  For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases.  For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves.  Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Procedural History

The Smittydogs have made a trade with the Stud Muffins.  The Smittydogs traded Kerry Wood (RP-CHC) to the Stud Muffins in exchange for Mitchell Boggs (RP-STL). 

Issue Presented

(1)   Should the trade between the Smittydogs and the Stud Muffins be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades.  The standard of review has been that people pay money to purchase a team in a league, draft their team, and manage it accordingly.  Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness.  The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league.  A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league.  The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.  In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season.  They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft.  In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent.

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or under-the-table dealings going on between teams.  The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so assumptions will be made that this is not an issue. 

At first glance, the trade of Kerry Wood in exchange for Mitchell Boggs looks fair and even.  This trade involves two relief pitchers who are not likely going to contribute much in terms of saves.  Rather, they could be effective for ERA and WHIP assuming they are both effective in a set-up role.  However, Boggs has been in contention for the Cardinals’ closer job after Ryan Franklin was removed.  Boggs had some initial success, but after a blown save just days after being named the likely closer, Cardinals’ manager Tony LaRussa has stated it will be a closer by committee situation with others such as Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez and Jason Motte.  This decreases Boggs’ value if he will not get opportunities for saves.  On the other hand, Wood is the established eighth inning reliever for the Cubs setting up Carlos Marmol.  Wood will only have save opportunities if Marmol is injured, unavailable, or in need of rest. 

When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective.  See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin).  Here, both teams have swapped players at the same position with relatively similar production.  There is nothing out of the ordinary to indicate either team has any ulterior motives behind the trade to question its sincerity.

In terms of keeper league status and salary cap value, this trade is almost equivocal.  Both players involved are in their first year under contract with their respective teams.  Wood is worth $0.30 while Boggs is worth $1.00.  The Stud Muffins, currently in third place, will gain $0.70 in salary cap space which is debatably not significant enough to factor into the evaluation given the equality of the players involved.  See Smittydogs v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 10, 11 (April 2011) (holding that a $0.10 differential amongst the players salaries was not enough to factor into the Court’s evaluation).

As referenced in Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010), the dichotomy between the Smittydogs and the Stud Muffins’ motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues.  However, had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would still likely approve it. 

Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade is fair, equal, and free of collusion.  The trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

 

New Fantasy Judgment decision – 4 Ponies vs. Carson City Cocks (fantasy baseball trade dispute)

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM

THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE

Decided May 4, 2011

Cite as 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011)

Factual Background

A rotisserie fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “The Incontinent League”) utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams within the Roto league.  This is an NL-only keeper league where each team is permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with each individual player allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) years.  Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept.  This Roto league also has a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.   

As with many rotisserie leagues, the subject Roto league uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money.  For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases.  For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves.  Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Procedural History

The 4 Ponies have made a trade with the Carson City Cocks.  The 4 Ponies traded Albert Pujols (1B-STL) and Geovany Soto (C-CHC) to the Carson City Cocks in exchange for Joey Votto (1B-CIN) and John Buck (C-FLA). 

Issue Presented

(1)   Should the trade between the 4 Ponies and the Carson City Cocks be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades.  The standard of review has been that people pay money to purchase a team in a league, draft their team, and manage it accordingly.  Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness.  The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league.  A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league.  The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.  In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season.  They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft.  In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent.

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or under-the-table dealings going on between teams.  The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so assumptions will be made that this is not an issue. 

At first glance, the trade of Albert Pujols and Geovany Soto in exchange for Joey Votto and John Buck looks fair and even.  This trade involves arguably the two best first baseman in both real and fantasy baseball.  Pujols and Votto have multiple National League MVP awards amongst them combined and have put up crooked statistics on an annual basis.  While Pujols generally has better numbers and has been producing them over a longer period of time, Votto has reached elite status with his production in a loaded lineup and a hitter’s ballpark in Cincinnati.  Buck and Soto have many similarities between them as well.  Soto has never come close to the production he had several years ago when he won National League Rookie of the Year.  However, he is still a solid second tier option at catcher in an NL-only league.  The same can be said for Buck, who has become known as a relatively prolific homerun-hitting catcher.  Neither will provide much in terms of batting average, runs scored, or stolen bases. 

When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective.  See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin).  Here, both teams have swapped players at the same position with relatively similar offensive production.  There is nothing out of the ordinary to indicate either team has any ulterior motives behind the trade to question its sincerity.

In terms of keeper league status and salary cap value, this trade is almost equivocal.  All four players involved are in their first year under contract with their respective teams.  Pujols is worth $4.70 while Votto is worth $4.60.  Additionally, Soto is worth $1.20 and Buck is worth $0.90.  The 4 Ponies, currently in second place, will gain $0.40 in salary cap space which is not significant enough to factor into the evaluation given the equality of the players involved.  See Smittydogs v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 10, 11 (April 2011) (holding that a $0.10 differential amongst the players salaries was not enough to factor into the Court’s evaluation).

Despite the fact that Pujols has struggled to begin the 2011 season, the Court admits into evidence his entire body of work over the last decade which unanimously delineates him the best player in baseball.  That being said, Pujols’ value must be considered in totality of his typical yearly output, along with the fact he is a free agent at the end of 2011 and will likely produce his usual numbers as motivation to justify the richest contract in all of baseball.  Below is a comparison using the league’s roto categories to further demonstrate the equality amongst these players in terms of their statistics as of May 3, 2011:

Player	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Albert Pujols	.230	7	19	22	2
Joey Votto	.362	5	16	24	4
Player	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
Geovany Soto	.239	2	10	12	0
John Buck	.223	3	15	13	0

Despite the disparity between Pujols and Votto’s batting average, everything else is equal in terms of current production.  As was stated earlier, the Court is discounting Pujols’ current batting average on the premise that it will significantly increase over time based on his historical averages and the underlying motivation of impending free agency.

As referenced in Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010), the dichotomy between the 4 Ponies and Carson City Cocks’ motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues.  However, had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would still likely approve it. 

Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade is fair, equal, and free of collusion.  The trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.