June 14, 2011 – Tuesday Top Ten Fantasy Baseball Headlines

Greetings and salutations to the fantasy baseball universe.  It is everybody’s favorite day of the week (and by everybody I mean nobody), so that means it is time for the Tuesday Night Top Ten list of newsworthy fantasy baseball happenings.  We are now in Week 11 of the season which is hard to believe because it feels like just last week was Week 10.  So without further adieu, here are your headlines for this Tuesday night.

10. Captain Crunch – For Yankees fans, the news that Derek Jeter was placed on the disabled list just six hits shy of 3,000 was akin to telling Ashton Kutcher that Twitter has been destroyed by Skynet.  For everyone else, no one really cares unless Jeter was your starting shortstop on your fantasy team.  Nonetheless, it is newsworthy that Jeter will be out for at least two weeks as he closes in on 3,000 hits for his career.  He has regressed in terms of offensive production, which is not surprising given his age and the position he plays.  However, Jeter is still a valuable fantasy player at a weak position so his injury could be significant in your league.  His replacement, Eduardo Nunez, is only worth a pickup if you get points for at bats or throwing errors.

9. Happy Holliday – The Cardinals are expected to activate Matt Holliday in time for Thursday’s game this week.  Holliday has been sidelined since the end of May with a left quadriceps tear, which came only six weeks after he returned from an emergency appendectomy.  It has been a frustrating season for fantasy owners of Holliday who has put up huge numbers in the limited time he has played.  With Albert Pujols finally heating up and Lance Berkman still producing, Holliday should fit right in the middle of that and continue to maintain a batting average well above .300 along with impressive power numbers and run production.  He is an elite outfield option in any fantasy format, but he is an injury risk this year so be cautious and keep Allen Craig and Jon Jay close by in case Holliday suffers a relapse.

8. No More Morneau – As if it can’t get any worse for the Minnesota Twins, now Justin Morneau has landed back on the disabled list with a left wrist injury.  The former MVP has not been the same player since he sustained a concussion in July 2010 that ended his season and clearly still affects him today.  The Twins are hopeful that this will resolve itself within the 15 days that Morneau is out.  However, even if Morneau does come back quickly, what exactly are you getting from him in fantasy baseball at a premium power position.  Morneau is only batting .225 with 4 homeruns and 22 RBI, so his value has already plummeted.  Stash him on the disabled list if you have the room, but look for other options at first base under the assumption you won’t start Morneau even when he comes back.  The guy is too talented to struggle this bad, so once he is able to heal from all of his injuries, then Morneau will be More-Yes.

7. Yo Adrian! – When the Red Sox acquired Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego this past winter, the general consensus was that we would finally get to see how truly great A-Gone is when hitting in a potent lineup and a hitter-friendly ballpark.  What we have seen thus far from Gonzalez goes beyond any of those expectations.  Gonzalez currently leads the American League in batting at .347 as well as RBI with 60.  He has anchored Boston’s lineup and thrived hitting behind Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia who both always seem to be on base for him.  Gonzalez hasn’t homered as much as one would have predicted, but that shouldn’t matter because as hot as he has been, some of those flyballs and laser beams will start finding their way over the fence.  Right now, Gonzalez is the best first base option in fantasy baseball.

6. Niese to Meet You – In a shocking turn of events, there is actually a reason to covet a Mets starting pitcher on your fantasy team.  Jonathon Niese has quietly put together a very solid season thus far in earning the right to be owned in mixed fantasy leagues.  Niese won his sixth game of the year tonight against the Braves making this the sixth straight start where he has allowed two earned runs or less.  He is commanding his deadly curveball which has led to an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks.  If he is available, you should add him immediately and ride the wave of his success. 

5. Sitting on the Dock of the Bay - Jason Bay has been one of the most disappointing players in all of baseball for the last year and a half.  After signing with the Mets for huge dollars prior to the 2010 season, Bay has produced as much offense as a backup middle infielder.  He has essentially become an automatic out at the plate with his poor pitch selection, lack of discipline, and inability to have a good at bat.  Mets manager Terry Collins has finally seen enough to make the decision that Bay was hurting the team by being in the lineup.  As a result, he has ridden the bench several times over the past 10 days.  This does not appear to be a permanent thing, or even a strict platoon.  However, it is apparent that Bay will not be playing every day unless and until he starts hitting the ball like a $16 million/year player should.  If Bay is in your fantasy team’s starting lineup, then you might as well start Henry Blanco too.

4. Philling Better – Amidst all of the Yankees injury problems lately, they actually have received some good news.  Phil Hughes, on the disabled list since early April, threw 49 pitches during an intrasquad game where he consistently hit 92 mph with his fastball.  The plan going forward is to have Hughes slowly extend himself and build back his endurance before he inevitably returns to the rotation sometime in July.  Fantasy owners who have stashed him on the disabled list will be rewarded when he returns and likely assumes the #2 spot in the Yankees rotation.  If for some reason Hughes is floating around your league’s waiver wire, grab him…but not in THAT way, sicko.

3. Return of the Zimm – Nationals star third baseman Ryan Zimmerman finally made his return to the lineup after missing over two months due to surgery repairing an abdominal tear.  Zimmerman was thought to be the second or third best option at third base heading into this fantasy baseball season, so owners have been anxious to receive a return on their investment.  Zimmerman’s return should also help the production of Jayson Werth who has struggled mightily to anchor Washington’s lineup in his absence.  When healthy, Zimmerman is a solid candidate for .290, 25 HR, and 90 RBI.  He will need some time to readjust, but your patience will be rewarded.

2. Good News for the Steals Category – Those of you who drafted Hanley Ramirez have been sorely disappointed by his .210 batting average, 4 homeruns, 17 RBI and multiple week stint on the disabled list.  Now not only is he back in the lineup, but he is back in his old leadoff spot in the Marlins lineup.  This is good news for Hanley owners who have been craving that deadly combination of power and speed.  Not that Hanley was doing much when he was healthy, but batting third in the order severely limited his stolen base attempts.  Now that he is leading off again, look for him to start doing a Mike Leake impression and stealing quite a bit.  There is still time to justify why you drafted him second overall.

1. The Justin Verlander School for Pitchers Who Aren’t Good – Justin Verlander was already in the upper echelon of pitchers in both real and fantasy baseball.  With two no-hitters already on his resume, Verlander nearly tossed his third tonight against the Indians.  He would have been the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1973 to throw two no-hitters in the same regular season, but it wasn’t meant to be.  Instead, Verlander had to settle for a two-hit, complete game shutout compiling 12 strikeouts on his way to his eighth win of the season.  Verlander has firmly entrenched his position as one of the elite pitchers in the game and can be relied on as the anchor of your fantasy team’s pitching staff. 

High Five – Fantasy Baseball News (May 24, 2011)

For the May 24, 2011 list of newsworthy fantasy baseball events and happenings, I have truncated it down to five for this week.  Before I delve into this week’s list, I must disclose something to you loyal readers.  I am a lifelong Mets fan (hold your laughter and tears).  This week has been even more embarassing to admit that, even after the last few years of collapses, disappointments and failures.  If you haven’t heard, Mets’ owner Fred Wilpon was recently quoted in an article written by Jeffrey Toobin for the New Yorker where he essentially threw his three best players under the bus.  He said Jose Reyes will never get Carl Crawford-type money in free agency, David Wright is not a superstar, and that he was a schmuck for signing Carlos Beltran to the 7 year/$119 million contract solely based on the 2004 playoffs (oh and that Beltran is now only 65-70% the player he once was).  The disclosure I want to share with you is that Wilpon also said that my writing skills are mediocre at best and that I am as humorous as the German Funnybot from South Park.  Thanks Mr. Wilpon.  Onto the news.

5. No Way Jorge – Rockies starting pitcher Jorge de la Rosa suffered a tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow which means he is likely headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery.  De la Rosa felt discomfort early in his start tonight in the first game of a double-header against the Diamondbacks.  The Rockies received the news no organization wants to to hear, especially when it comes to a valuable and successful left-handed starter.  De la Rosa was already having a solid 2011 campaign as he was 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 52 strikeouts.  Now he is headed for the DL and will likely miss the remainder of the season assuming he does go for the surgery.  If you are in a keeper league and have the space, hold onto him as he should be back by the July 4 holiday in 2012 (assuming he has surgery in the very near future). 

4. Concussion Discussion – Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts will be out at least several more weeks due to experiencing concussion-like symptoms as a result of a head-first slide he made.  Head injuries are difficult to evaluate in terms of severity and ability to overcome.  But this is just the next injury in a long line of injuries suffered by Roberts.  Once considered one of the top options at second base in fantasy baseball leagues, Roberts has fallen into oblivion due to missing so much time over the past few years.  His days of 50 stolen bases and 100 runs scored appear to be over, mostly because he cannot stay healthy.  If you have DL spots on your roster, you should stash him.  In all likelihood, Roberts will be back at some point unless his symptoms persist.  If he is available on the waiver wire, he is definitely worth a pick up.

3. The Grandy Man Can – Yankees’ outfielder Curtis Granderson is having an MVP-type season as he has carried the Yankees through the first quarter of the season.  After a four-hit night on Tuesday, Granderson is batting .275, 16 homeruns, 35 RBI, 37 runs scored, 6 stolen bases, an OPS hovering around .950, and a sudden ability to hit left-handed pitchers.  He has been a fantasy stud thus far, and hitting in between Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira should provide him with great protection, lots of strikes to hit, and plenty of RBI chances.  He will likely slow down his insane homerun pace, but in the end he should end up with 30-35 homeruns and 90 RBI depending on where he is in the lineup.

Jason Bay stares at his bat in amazement that he might officially be the worst free agent signing in the history of free agency.

2. Go Back to Canada – Mets’ outfielder Jason Bay is the highest paid Canadian baseball player…ever.  After putting up huge numbers for years with the Pirates and Red Sox, Bay signed a lucrative 4 year/$66 million contract.with the Mets prior to the 2010 season.  In the year+ that he has been in the Mets organization, he has been nothing short of horrendous.  Of course there was going to be a learning curve for him to readjust to National League pitching and deal with the unfriendly confines of Citi Field.  Generally speaking people were patient with Bay in 2010, which ended early due to a concussion.  Now in his second year with the Mets, Bay has been injured and unproductive the entire season.  He left tonight’s game with a stiff right calf and a lingering .230 batting average, two homeruns, and under ten RBI.  Keep an eye on Bay when and if he returns.  He is quickly reaching the point where dropping him is a viable consideration.

1. Catcher in the Rye – Twins superstar catcher Joe Mauer should be starting to play in live games this week as he works his way back from bilateral leg weakness. Mauer is clearly a great hitter and someone the Twins will be banking on for many years to come.  In order to preserve Mauer’s bat and career, he may be given a shot at a new position as the Twins start the process of getting him out from behind the plate.  This makes sense on all levels.  The rumors are that Mauer will be slowly transitioned to third base.  If that is the case in 2011, then next year Mauer could actually be worth spending an early round pick on because he will still qualify at catcher yet be at a position that can keep him healthy and on the field everyday.

Fantasy Baseball Retrospective – The OBFBL Turns 13.

This season marks the 13th year of the Old Bridge Fantasy Baseball League (“OBFBL”).  Back in 1999, I created a 16-team (expanded to 18 teams in 2000), head to head, points fantasy baseball league comprised of friends and family.  It is a non-keeper league where a random fresh draft order is done before each season.  Now thirteen years later, the league is still running strong with some new faces and rule changes to keep up with the times.  Back then, the internet was just becoming a must-have for any fantasy league.  I initially started the league by doing everything manually which proved to be a logistical disaster.  So after the first week of the season, the OBFBL was run on TQ Stats where it would remain until 2008.  After TQ Stats was bought out by Fanball, I moved the league to CBS where it has remained ever since.  Times have changed and the league has evolved every year, including rule changes, format changes, and administrative changes.  Now thirteen years later, the OBFBL has reached adulthood (at least in the eyes of Judaism). 

I will be doing a retrospective of the league by compiling various lists of data and information from over the years, including interesting tidbits from old drafts and analyzing success based on draft position.  Given how long the OBFBL has been running, I thought I would make the first edition of the retrospective a tribute to longevity.  The following is a list (in order of when they were drafted) of the Top 25 players that were drafted in the OBFBL in 1999 and are still currently playing today.  I will include some analysis and commentary for each player based on where they stood thirteen years ago and where they stand today.

1. Alex Rodriguez-SS-SEA (1st round, 2nd pick) – A-Rod was still a young pup but was already established as one of the game’s elite players at a premium position.  He went second overall behind Mike Piazza, which isn’t that surprising given Piazza’s credentials at the catcher position.  Today, A-Rod remains a viable fantasy option at third base for the Yankees.  He is no longer a lock for a first round pick, but he is still near the top of the list for options at his position.

2. Ivan Rodriguez-C-TEX (1st round, 15th pick) - Pudge was in the prime of his career as one of the game’s best offensive catchers not named Piazza.  Clearly benefiting from “the juice,” he put up some monster offensive numbers and was always highly regarded by OBFBL league members.  He is a shell of his former self as father time and lack of injections have depleted him of his offensive skills, but he is still the starting catcher in Washington.

3. Derek Jeter-SS-NYY (1st round, 16th pick) – this was back in the glory days of the American League shortstops.  Jeter never could compare to the numbers put up by A-Rod, Nomar, or even Miguel Tejada, but he still produced terrific offensive numbers in terms of hits, runs, stolen bases, walks, and RBI at that position.  Presently, he is coming off his worst offensive season and just signed a controversial contract extension.  There is no reason to think he can’t or won’t return to his season average numbers, but he certainly is not mentioned as a possible first round pick anymore.

4. Chipper Jones-3B-ATL (2nd round, 6th pick) – Chipper was the premiere option at third base back then in the days when he was healthy and could play 150 games.  He is barely hanging on today as he annually recovers from various injuries that he has sustained during his likely Hall of Fame career.  He is no longer an option for a starting third base slot, but he will likely be drafted and could be valuable if he can stay on the field.

5. Manny Ramirez-OF-CLE (2nd round, 8th pick) – much of what was said about Chipper can be said about Ramirez.  He was entering the prime of his career in 1999 and would only get better as the years went on.  Today, he is hanging on as a DH in Tampa Bay and could still rack up numbers if his body doesn’t betray him.  He will be a later round pick with some upside.

6. Vladimir Guerrero-OF-MON (2nd round, 12th pick) – at the time, Vlad was blossoming into one of the best fantasy players in the league.  He hit for an extremely high batting average, had tremendous power, and also stole lots of bases.  This was right before he truly emerged as an elite force, but it was evident you could build a fantasy team around him.  Today, Vlad is relegated to a full-time DH as he joins the Orioles after spending one successful year in Texas.  He is a middle round pick with good upside as he hits in a solid lineup in a great hitters’ park.

7. Jason Giambi-1B-OAK (2nd round, 14th pick) – he was also emerging as an elite option at first base in 1999.  Today, he is a backup first baseman in Colorado and primarily used as a left-handed pinch hitter.  He has no fantasy value and should not be drafted.

8. Jim Thome-1B-CLE (2nd round, 15th pick) – Thome was already a proven veteran power hitter on his way to a prolific career hitting homeruns.  He has changed teams several times, but he remains a candidate for a bench spot on your fantasy roster as he serves as a DH for the Twins. 

9. Scott Rolen-3B-PHI (3rd round, 4th pick) – he never fully reached his potential due to injuries and a bad attitude than ran him out of Philadelphia.  He was a solid option at third base, but never performed up to the expectations that were set.  Today, he has revitalized his career in Cincinnati and managed to stay healthy in 2010.  Assuming he avoids injuries, he is a solid middle-tier option in 2011.

10. Andruw Jones-OF-ATL (4th round, 11th pick) – the other Jones in Atlanta came up in 1996 as a 19-year old and was established as a burgeoning star by 1999.  He was a solid #2 outfield option and would continue this trend well into the 2000′s.  As he entered his 30′s, his skills rapidly declined and now he is simply a reserve outfielder on the Yankees.

11. Kevin Millwood-SP-ATL (4th round, 13th pick) – he was the youngest stud on those great Atlanta pitching staffs and expectations were high for him.  He never truly reached those levels, but he was a solid option for a #2 or #3 starter in fantasy.  Today, he is coming off a horrendous 2010 that has left him looking for work as of today.

12. J.D. Drew-OF-STL (5th round, 4th pick) – Drew was a highly touted prospect and former #1 pick that refused to play in Philadelphia.  His legacy is that he gets constantly injured, even when he wakes up in the morning.  He never lived up to his potential and has remained an average players for his entire career.  Now playing in Boston, he may be splitting time with Mike Cameron which could decrease whatever value he had left.

13. Jorge Posada-C-NYY (5th round, 13th pick) – a lot of credit is owed to Posada for lasting so long and being as productive as he has been over his career.  He has never been an elite option, but he has remained a solid top 10 catcher for almost 15 years.  Only now has he unwillingly relinquished his catching duties as he nears the end of his career.  It is a credit and testament to him that he was a solid fantasy option in 1999 and in 2011.

14. Edgar Renteria-SS-STL (6th round, 7th pick) – it is also hard to believe that Renteria has been around this long too.  He was a solid fantasy option at SS back in 1999 as his offensive skills were much sharper.  Father time and nagging injuries have sapped Renteria of his offensive production and he is likely done as an everyday player.  But he is a World Series MVP and has had two game-winning hits to win championships.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t change the fact he won’t be drafted this year.

15. Todd Helton-1B-COL (6th round, 11th pick) – at the time, this was a steal to get Helton in the 6th round as he would embark on the first of several monsterous seasons.  Helton became an elite option at first base benefiting from hitting in Denver and being in the middle of the Blake Street Bombers.  Allegations of performance enhancing drugs surfaced in the mid-2000′s and coincidentally his numbers dropped significantly and he has been ravaged by injuries.  Helton is no longer an option at first base and probably should not be drafted.

16. Mariano Rivera-RP-NYY (6th round, 12th pick) – it’s as simple as this…Rivera was the best at what he does in 1999 and is still the best in 2011.  He may not lead the league in saves, but you can count on very few blown saves, lots of strikeouts, and barely any earned runs allowed.

17. Bobby Abreu-OF-PHI (7th round, 8th pick) – very few players have such polarizing effects on people as Abreu.  He would become a fantasy stud due to his high batting average, propensity to draw walks and score runs, homerun power, and high stolen base totals.  However, he never reached that superstar status that was pinned to him.  He has remained relevant in fantasy over the years, and will now serve as the Angels’ full-time DH.  This may be the last year of consistent production out of Abreu as time catches up with him.

18. Magglio Ordonez-OF-CHW (8th round, 7th pick) – it has been a tale of two careers for Maggs as he was on his way to reaching elite status until a significant leg injury hampered him in the mid-2000′s.  After leaving the White Sox, Ordonez has been a rollercoaster in terms of performance with the Tigers.  When healthy, he can still be a productive hitter.  However, health is an ongoing concern for him and reach 25-30 homeruns does not seem realistic anymore.  The end is near for Maggs as well.

19. Chris Carpenter-SP-TOR (8th round, 15th pick) – it is easy to forget that Carpenter began his career way back in 1999 with the Blue Jays.  He was a highly-touted prospect that never could put it together or stay healthy enough to live up to his potential in Toronto.  In the mid-2000′s, the Cardinals took a chance on Carpenter and it has paid off to say the least.  When healthy, he is a top 10 pitcher…but it seems like he is hurt every year.  His hamstring injury this spring is something to watch closely.

20. Miguel Tejada-SS-OAK (9th round, 9th pick) – it was around this time when Tejada joined group of elite offensive shortstops.  He became a prolific homerun hitter and run producer emerging as the third best option behind A-Rod and Nomar.  Over the years, allegations of steroid use ran rampant and conveniently his power dissipated.  He can now be considered a journeyman infielder as he joined the world champion Giants a shell of his former self.  His multiple position eligibility and starting gig as a shortstop will get him drafted, but don’t expect much production anymore.

21. Johnny Damon-OF-KC (9th round, 14th pick) – Damon was a young prospect with big upside at the time as a speed guy.  He hadn’t developed his power stroke yet, nor had he developed the facial hair he would later be known for.  Much like every other good Royal, he would price himself out of Kansas City and go on to shine in Boston and New York.  Now he with Tampa Bay looking to re-establish himself as a viable everyday player which should land him a draft selection as a 3rd outfield option.

22. Carlos Guillen-2B-SEA (14th round, 10th pick) – one of the key pieces of the 1998 Randy Johnson trade, Guillen is the epitome of a health risk.  He has produced solid numbers throughout his career when healthy at various positions.  When he has had very good offensive seasons, expectations run high the following year only to be met with disappointment from his inability to stay on the field.  He is slated to be the Tigers’ second baseman again, and if healthy, he is a nice late round option as others pass him over.

23. Derrek Lee-1B-FLA (15th round, 10th pick) – at the time, Lee was still a relatively unknown commodity.  He would become a solid option at first base but never produced eye-opening numbers until later in his career with the Cubs.  He is another victim of Father Time and nagging injuries as he joins the Orioles in an attempt to re-establish himself as well.  He has fallen to a third-tier option at first base which could mean a steal for someone that grabs him in the later round.

24. Carlos Beltran-OF-KC (15th round, 16th pick) – seeing the physical condition of Beltran now, it is hard to remember him as a young stud.  He had a brief cup of coffee with Kansas City in 1998 and hopes were high for him in 1999.  He produced a solid rookie campaign but wouldn’t emerge as a top talent until 2001.  Now he is slowly coming back from knee injuries which have precipitated a move from CF to RF.  He is playing for a contract this year which should motivate him.  But health is a major concern for Beltran as he looks to earn another big payday.

25. Roy Halladay-SP-TOR (16th round, 6th pick) – what better way to conclude this list than with the best pitcher in all of baseball today.  Back then, Halladay was a prospect who was rushed to the big leagues and faltered for several years until he finally put it all together in the early 2000′s.  Now he is clearly the top pitching option in any draft.  His talent and abilities have always been there, as evidence by this late round pick in 1999 when he was still an unknown.  Now thirteen years later, he has justified all of the hype, and then some.

So there you have it.  This was the first of several trips down memory lane.  While thirteen years doesn’t seem like an overly long amount of time, you can see that lots has changed.  It is interesting to see how some players were correctly projected to be successful and have remained relevant at a high level ever since.  Stay tuned for more retrospective articles in the coming days and weeks.  Feel free to share your comments, thoughts and analysis by sending me an email to michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com.