New Fantasy Judgment decision – fantasy baseball trade (Josh Johnson)

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

Carson City Cocks v. Stud Muffins

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM

THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE

 Decided May 16, 2011

Cite as 3 F.J. 23 (May 2011)

Factual Background

A rotisserie fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “The Incontinent League”) utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams within the Roto league.  This is an NL-only keeper league where each team is permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with each individual player allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) years.  Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept.  This Roto league also has a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.   

As with many rotisserie leagues, the subject Roto league uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money.  For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases.  For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves.  Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Procedural History

The Carson City Cocks have made a trade with the Stud Muffins.  The Carson City Cocks traded J.J. Putz (RP-ARZ) and Kyle McClellan (SP-STL) to the Stud Muffins in exchange for Josh Johnson (SP-FLA). 

Issue Presented

(1)   Should the trade between the Carson City Cocks and the Stud Muffins be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades.  The standard of review has been that people pay money to purchase a team in a league, draft their team, and manage it accordingly.  Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness.  The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league.  A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league.  The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.  In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season.  They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft.  In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent.

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or under-the-table dealings going on between teams.  The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so assumptions will be made that this is not an issue. 

At first glance, the trade of J.J. Putz and Kyle McClellan in exchange for Josh Johnson looks peculiar.  The reason for initial pause is because Johnson is unequivocally one of the top pitchers in both real and fantasy baseball, and Putz and McClellan are not household names.  It is rare to see a superstar of this caliber involved in a trade that does not include either another top superstar or prime prospects for the future in keeper leagues.  However, the Court has always held that its approval or rejection of a trade is based purely on its fairness, free from collusion, and in the best interests of the league.  Whether a trade is intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis.  Clearly this trade will raise some eyebrows by other members of the league, but the virtue of the trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. 

When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective.  See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin).  This trade involved two starting pitchers and one closer.  Prior to the trade, the Stud Muffins did not have any closers on their roster.  The relief pitchers they had were all set-up relievers, including Kerry Wood, Sergio Romo and Matt Lindstrom.  Presumably, the Stud Muffins were near the bottom of the rankings in saves since these relief pitchers have not had, nor will they have, many opportunities to close games for their respective teams.  In fact, they are set-up men for three of the best closers in baseball (Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson and Huston Street, respectively).  It is clear that the Stud Muffins were in need of a closer.  They also had Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, and Clayton Richard as starting pitchers, so dealing Johnson was not going to leave them completely empty.  With respect to the Carson City Cocks, they could afford to trade Putz because they also have Joel Hanrahan and Vicente Padilla as closers.  The addition of Johnson was more crucial to improve the Carson City Cocks’ starting pitching which only consisted of Jorge de la Rosa, Wandy Rodriguez, and Jordan Zimmermann. 

 The wild card in this trade is Kyle McClellan.  He is a converted relief pitcher thrust into the Cardinals’ rotation due to the loss of Adam Wainwright before spring training.  McClellan has been impressive thus far, despite losing his last start.  The Cardinals have played better than was expected of them, thanks in large part to McClellan’s emergence as a reliable starter. 

Here is a statistical comparison of all players involved through May 15, 2011:

Player	Wins	Strikeouts	ERA	WHIP	Saves
Josh Johnson	3	53	1.63	0.90	0
Kyle McClellan	5	23	3.62	1.39	0
J.J. Putz	0	14	2.40	1.13	9

As good as Josh Johnson is, he simply does not win a lot of games.  This is not his fault, but rather as a result of poor run support or an inefficient bullpen.  Johnson’s career high in wins is 15 back in 2009.  In 2010, when he clearly had a better season all around, he only won 11 games and also suffered from some injuries.  Currently, Johnson leads the National League in both ERA and WHIP.  While his production in those categories is unparalleled, he is not a reliable source for wins for the aforementioned reasons.  McClellan, still not completely proven, has at least demonstrated he will keep his team in games and last long enough to win.  It would not be all that surprising if McClellan actually wins more games than Johnson in 2011.  As we know, win totals do not measure the quality of a pitcher in real baseball.  But in fantasy baseball, numbers and statistics are gospel (most times).

In terms of keeper league status and salary cap value, this trade is almost equivocal.  All players involved are in their first year under contract with their respective teams.  Johnson is worth $3.40 while McClellan is worth $0.90 and Putz is worth $2.30.  The Stud Muffins, currently in seventh place, will gain $0.20 in salary cap space which is not significant enough to factor into the evaluation given the equality of the players involved.  See Smittydogs v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 10, 11 (April 2011) (holding that a $0.10 differential amongst the players salaries was not enough to factor into the Court’s evaluation).

As referenced in Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010), the dichotomy between the Carson City Cocks and the Stud Muffins’ motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues.  However, had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would still likely approve it. 

Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade is fair, equal, and free of collusion.  The trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Passing Judgment – Keeper or Non-Keeper…That is the Question.

If you play fantasy baseball, you know that there are a myriad of different types of leagues that you can participate in depending on your tastes and preferences. Some examples of customizable leagues include rotisserie, head-to-head, points, auction, salary cap, AL only, NL only, mixed league, and others. But one of the most important choices you can make when deciding what type of league you want to join is whether it is a keeper or non-keeper league. In a keeper league, each team owner is allowed to retain a set number of players on their roster for a pre-determined number of consecutive seasons. In a non-keeper league, rosters are refreshed every year and team owners have no long-term rights to a player from season to season.

In order to determine what the general consensus is in terms of preferring keeper or non-keeper leagues, I recently polled 100 people on Facebook, Twitter, email lists, friends and personal acquaintances to gauge the growing trends. The results of the poll showed that 68% of fantasy baseball players preferred keeper leagues, 30% preferred non-keeper leagues, and 2% were either undecided or liked both equally. This did not come as a surprise to me given the trends over the last decade where fantasy baseball players have become more sophisticated and leagues have better replicated real baseball team management. It cannot be denied that people do enjoy drafting players and then have the ability to sign them to long-term contracts and retain them over the course of a set number of years. This was the most common reason given why people prefer keeper leagues. The strategy that goes into deciding who to retain as part of a fantasy team’s long-term planning is a decent simulation of a real baseball general manager. That aspect is something that people clearly enjoy.

A keeper league configuration requires a tremendous amount of strategy, foresight, instinct, long-term planning, intuition, knowledge of minor league players, and guts. Depending on how many players you are allowed to retain, team owners endure much angst in making these crucial decisions. People also need to be conscious of injuries (my condolences to those who already declared retention of Adam Wainwright), injury-plagued players, and players returning from injury. People must also take into account a player’s age, future potential, position on a team’s depth chart, and supporting cast when deciding whether to retain that player going forward.

Depending on which style you choose to play, the actual fantasy baseball draft takes on a different meaning. In a keeper league, younger players who do not have lengthy resumes and are unproven have higher values assigned to them because of their long-term prospects. Signing these young players gives team owners a sense of creating their own dynasty and building for success going forward. This has almost as much intrinsic value as trying to win the league now. In a non-keeper league, the objective of team owners is to select the best players possible for the current season. This comparison applies to both auction and straight draft leagues. Obviously in an auction league, the heightened value of younger players is reflected in the dollar amount spent on those players, whereas in a straight draft, the value is represented by an early round selection. Ona aspect that is common between keeper and non-keeper leagues is the evaluation of potential “sleepers.” Every year, there are certain unknown commodoties that are deemed “sleepers” because of their potential for a breakout season. The criteria used to determine whether someone is a sleeper is completely subjective and arguably arbitrary. But regardless, sleepers are usually a late round pick in a straight draft or a cheaper purchase in an auction depending on how badly someone buys into the hype. Either way, the evaluation of a sleeper is usually based on the present and not the future.

While there are obvious logistical and pragmatic differences between keeper and non-keeper leagues, the biggest distinction is arguably the evaluation of trades made. In a non-keeper league, there are certain objective criteria that can be used to evaluate a trade and determine whether it is fair or not (note that I said fair – not intelligent). You can look at the players involved in the trade and tell whether it passes the sniff test or not. You can look at the players’ statistics and tell whether the trade has equal value. You can look at the rosters of each team involved in the trade and determine what the motivation might be to make the trade, as well as ascertain whether any collusion may be taking place. But all bets are off when looking at trades in a keeper league. In keeper leagues, trading away current high-priced talent in exchange for young, up and coming players is a perfectly acceptable and common strategy to employ. This is most typical when a team competing for a playoff berth needs a player to produce for him this year, so he would trade away unproven talent to a team looking to rebuild for the future. Does this sound familiar? It happens in real baseball all the time. So when evaluating whether a trade like this should be approved, you cannot use objective criteria like statistics, team rosters, or auction values. For example, Team A is in second place and needs to bolster his pitching staff to make a run at the league championship this year. Team B is in second to last place in the league and has no chance of earning a playoff berth this season. Team A possesses several younger players who are projected to be stars down the road and under contract for multiple seasons, but they cannot be relied upon at the present time to contribute from a fantasy perspective. Team B possesses current star pitchers who are under the final year of their contract in the keeper league. So Team A offers a package including Aroldis Chapman, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Moustakas and Freddie Freeman to Team B in exchange for Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter. In a non-keeper league, this trade would never be allowed because the current values of these players is so lopsided. For 2011, Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter are light years more valuable than the package of young players. However, in a keeper league format, this trade would be considered fair and equal based on what each team’s needs are. Team A would be acquiring two top pitchers to help his run at a championship this season. He doesn’t care that these players are essentially rentals and do not have as much long-term value. Team B would be acquiring four young players with great upside to build for next season and beyond. This dynamic is exactly what MLB general managers do when deciding whether to trade veteran players for prospects.

When it comes to deciding whether to play in a keeper or non-keeper league, it all depends on your own personal taste and preferences. But beware, keeper leagues are premised on the fact that they will be running continuously year-to-year while retaining most if not all of its league members. There ideally needs to be a commitment in place amongst all league members that they are in it for the long-haul since they are investing in their team not just this year, but for years down the road. That is why the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment advises you that the best way to ensure stability is probably to be involved in a non-keeper league for a few years and establish a continuous rapport with the other league members before transitioning the league into a keeper format. This will demonstrate a commitment amongst your league members that they are dependable and consistent with their status in the league, and it also presumes that you have open lines of communication with other league members to discuss those difficult trade scnearios (like the one referenced above). Stability is key to having a successful keeper league because when a team has to be replaced, the new person coming into the league is likely stuck inheriting that team and must make decisions he or she doesn’t necessarily want to make. The verdict is that keeper leagues are unquestionably more popular and provide unique challenges and opportunities as compared to non-keeper leagues. But if you decide to do a keeper league, beware of the distinctions and take whatever steps are necessary to ensure you are in a league that will sustain itself down the road.

The Court would like to thank its law clerk, Lance Kodish, for his assistance with some research and composition within this article.  The Court also wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook at www.goo.gl/xF0pt and Twitter at www.twitter.com/FantasyJudgment (@FantasyJudgment).

Passing Judgment – Adam Wainwright out for the year.

The bad news became official today when it was announced that St. Louis Cardinals ace pitcher Adam Wainwright will need season-ending Tommy John surgery.  After sustaining what Cardinals’ officials called a “significant elbow injury,” it was highly speculated that this meant Wainwright would require surgical intervention.  This is a devastating loss for the Cardinals who relied on the 1-2 punch of Wainwright and Chris Carpenter to lead their pitching staff.  Over the last three seasons, Wainwright has established himself as an elte pitcher and a top candidate for the Cy Young award.  It will be impossible to replace his value and statistics, so somehow the Cardinals will have to be creative and hope for the best as they deal with this situation.

From a fantasy baseball perspective, this is obviously devastating to anyone who already has Wainwright in a keeper league.  If you haven’t had to commit to keepers yet, then Wainwright will likely be thrown back into the pool.  For leagues that use a fresh draft, Wainwright’s name can be crossed off of all lists as he will be out for the entire season with goals and aspirations of pitching in early 2012.  This means that arguably one of the top five pitching options is now off the board.  It also bodes well for players on opposing teams in the NL Central who no longer have to worry about facing Wainwright so many times during the season. 

If you have the option of keeping him in a keeper league, I would think long and hard about holding on to him.  While he will miss this whole season, he is still young and will be pitching with extra motivation and incentive when he returns.  Tommy John surgery is no longer as complicated and risky as it once was.  So many pitchers undergo the operation and come back just as good, if not better, than before an injury.  Wainwright is still young and will have plenty of opportunities to regain his stuff.  Right now, assuming that things don’t progress as quickly as the Mets would like, it is possible that Johan Santana could miss most of this season as well.  That means that when 2012 comes around, we could see Stephen Strasburg, Adam Wainwright and Santana all back and looking to prove themselves after serious injuries.  Could be interesting.